tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post194667503618196150..comments2024-03-28T09:22:36.967+13:00Comments on Offsetting Behaviour: Youth rates [updated]Eric Cramptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-84867036744352648402010-02-07T13:39:40.838+13:002010-02-07T13:39:40.838+13:00I'd be surprised if it amounted to much. Turf...I'd be surprised if it amounted to much. Turfing the underperforming is only just starting. I think Canterbury is moving this year to have about a hundred underperformers leave. That doesn't amount to anything in the aggregate unemployment stats.Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-12168622522632492162010-02-07T11:47:00.779+13:002010-02-07T11:47:00.779+13:00would a higher university drop out rate and turfin...would a higher university drop out rate and turfing out of underperforming students add significant numbers to the young jobless ?pollywoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01295990157397125661noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-16195896568838912010-02-06T16:07:22.336+13:002010-02-06T16:07:22.336+13:00@Matt: it would have to be a heck of a lot of hoar...@Matt: it would have to be a heck of a lot of hoarding as compared to the prior recession to drive the difference. On the second one, we'd then expect to be seeing a much bigger jump in the 25-29 rate as compared to the overall rate, but it looks pretty similar. I'm with you - minimum wage change most plausible explanation for the bulk of it.<br /><br />@Sam: It was the 2005 election bribe, so it started coming in for 2006. Interest free loans, if anything, ought be dropping the youth unemployment rate - you're right.Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-82331207550742434182010-02-06T13:56:56.546+13:002010-02-06T13:56:56.546+13:00Yeah, I was wondering that myself.
I wonder when ...Yeah, I was wondering that myself.<br /><br />I wonder when interest free student loans came into effect - or was announced. Then again, if that was the reason it would be expected to cause the reduction, but not the spike.Samuel Konkinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00821513835134996401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-67634942597094324692010-02-06T09:53:03.115+13:002010-02-06T09:53:03.115+13:00Firms have stated that they are "labour hordi...Firms have stated that they are "labour hording" pretty substantially during this recession - hence why productivity growth has been negative compared to the strong productivity growth we normally get in the later parts of a recession.<br /><br />If the justification for labour hording was the fact that hiring employees is like an investment, then it is likely that older and more experienced employees would be kept on while younger people are let go.<br /><br />Another possibility is that, we know working age net migration has increased even more than net migration generally. If this is primarily younger New Zealanders returning this would have some impact on the UR (as least for the old "young categories").<br /><br />Personally I mainly blame the minimum wage anyway ...Matt Nolanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05615455113796090765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-69385931035947890722010-02-05T21:17:33.174+13:002010-02-05T21:17:33.174+13:00Robert: entirely plausible, and that's what wo...Robert: entirely plausible, and that's what would have been going on at 1991. The gap this time around relative to the adult unemployment rate is much larger.<br /><br />Sejanus: Thanks! Something odd with that series...why the spike in 2005?Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-85128007423488653552010-02-05T17:22:22.768+13:002010-02-05T17:22:22.768+13:00Here you go Eric,
http://www.act.org.nz/blog/roge...Here you go Eric,<br /><br />http://www.act.org.nz/blog/roger-douglas/youth-rates-and-their-effect-on-maori<br /><br />Still waiting on better figures. <br /><br />-SejanusSamuel Konkinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00821513835134996401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-58283649254315142952010-02-05T17:11:27.757+13:002010-02-05T17:11:27.757+13:00There was a recession in 1991 and 1999 from memory...There was a recession in 1991 and 1999 from memory, so the data covers this period.Samuel Konkinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00821513835134996401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-48399251742299874102010-02-05T16:57:50.789+13:002010-02-05T16:57:50.789+13:00Perhaps young people are just marginal workers? Ca...Perhaps young people are just marginal workers? Can you go back any further in the data and see if they tend to be laid off disproportionately in past recessions?Robert Wiblinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13954799089661405941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-50086344029873931232010-02-05T16:54:17.408+13:002010-02-05T16:54:17.408+13:00This comment has been removed by the author.Robert Wiblinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13954799089661405941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-9812547243961684762010-02-05T16:18:09.399+13:002010-02-05T16:18:09.399+13:00I could get UE by sex and age, by sex and ethnicit...I could get UE by sex and age, by sex and ethnicity, but not by ethnicity and age. I would be very surprised to find you're wrong. Had always figured biggest effect would be on most marginalized sectors: that's where the minimum wage is most binding.Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-65785641199599147842010-02-05T16:16:12.974+13:002010-02-05T16:16:12.974+13:00Hi Eric,
I can't seem to find the figures to...Hi Eric, <br /><br />I can't seem to find the figures to break down youth unemployment by ethnicity, but I think you will find a much larger increase in Maori youth unemployment than would be expected given the recession as well. I may get the Parliamentary library onto it.<br /><br />-SejanusSamuel Konkinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00821513835134996401noreply@blogger.com