tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post1968398870983704440..comments2024-03-28T09:22:36.967+13:00Comments on Offsetting Behaviour: The market for dodgyEric Cramptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-26486399062738961252012-02-10T21:37:45.678+13:002012-02-10T21:37:45.678+13:00Thinking back to the issue of 'is it a problem...Thinking back to the issue of 'is it a problem that there is a market for dodgy figures which some consultants are happy to provide?'... I'm stretching for an analogy here, but it's as though, in voting, voters are giving 'power of attorney' to their representatives. If I am left mentally-impaired after a horrible accident, I expect my proxy to act in my best interests. If they don't they are not fulfilling their legal obligation. So on that model, yes there is a problem if consultants and councillors stitch up a deal (even if voters are uninformed or apathetic).rockynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-73938442958777470672012-02-09T22:53:22.225+13:002012-02-09T22:53:22.225+13:00That works where the person paying the consultant ...That works where the person paying the consultant cares about getting an accurate result. But where voters are the target audience and they don't pay much attention to those kinds of accuracy measures....Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-81799056597145510342012-02-09T21:57:56.797+13:002012-02-09T21:57:56.797+13:00Market opportunity for a database recording these ...Market opportunity for a database recording these consultancy reports/authors and then matching with outcomes 1,2,5,10yrs later?Vnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-19045816241539631892012-02-09T16:06:02.093+13:002012-02-09T16:06:02.093+13:00I haven't read the consulting report here at i...I haven't read the consulting report here at issue, but I have no reason to expect that they wouldn't have said something like "The client requested projections based on blah de blah starting assumptions; these projections hold for those assumptions..."Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-82569792081350762672012-02-09T16:05:10.388+13:002012-02-09T16:05:10.388+13:00@PaulL: Agreed!! Check my post from 2009 here: htt...@PaulL: Agreed!! Check my post from 2009 here: http://offsettingbehaviour.blogspot.co.nz/2009/08/gaming-socialist-calculation-debate.htmlEric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-58031796035202802262012-02-09T15:11:20.722+13:002012-02-09T15:11:20.722+13:00I have a different target of blame. The developer...I have a different target of blame. The developers of video games - Sim City being my special hate. In said game additional of stadiums is critical to keeping your populace happy, they're seen as a legitimate planning item that govt simply must delivery.<br /><br />More broadly (and as I saw somewhere - perhaps here?) the whole concept of a video game whose basic premise is that top down planning works - and in fact a game you can only win by believing in top down planning - is flawed. Sure, a game in which you set the regulatory framework and then stood back and watched would be kinda boring, but it would be more true to life.PaulLnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-91323090347293560622012-02-09T14:24:30.788+13:002012-02-09T14:24:30.788+13:00“… if an auditor's scope of investigation is l...“… if an auditor's scope of investigation is limited by the client, the report will clearly state the audit's limitations.”<br /><br />That will be true for an honest auditor, just as it will be for an honest consultant. But my comparison is between the dishonest auditor who manipulates numbers and ignores or conceals relevant facts to suit its client, and the dishonest consultant who does the same.dragonflynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-88278390450480901722012-02-09T13:25:48.408+13:002012-02-09T13:25:48.408+13:00Close, dragonfly. But if an auditor's scope of...Close, dragonfly. But if an auditor's scope of investigation is limited by the client, the report will clearly state the audit's limitations. It's just that private investors have really strong incentive to check the audit's scope and make sure that it was up to the necessary task; nobody except wierdo academics check whether the baseline assumptions on government-commissioned consulting reports on the costs or benefits of X make any sense, voters don't trust academics, do like the idea of stadiums, and have zero incentive to get anything right where the marginal effect of a vote is nil.Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-19878948352807521712012-02-09T13:23:01.221+13:002012-02-09T13:23:01.221+13:00I generally reckon it a fraud on the public.I generally reckon it a fraud on the public.Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-70118248895279809912012-02-09T13:06:24.282+13:002012-02-09T13:06:24.282+13:00“If a consulting firm is asked to produce a dodgy ...“If a consulting firm is asked to produce a dodgy report, and delivers what the client wants, where's the harm?”<br /><br />We could rephrase that to something like:<br /><br />“If an auditing firm is asked to produce a dodgy report, and delivers what [Feltex/National Finance/Enron] wants, where's the harm?”dragonflynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-87122417595819669162012-02-09T13:03:43.497+13:002012-02-09T13:03:43.497+13:00This might also take your fancy - Eckstein and Del...This might also take your fancy - Eckstein and Delaney published a piece from their book as a journal article "The Devil is in the Detail ..."(http://crs.sagepub.com/content/29/2/189.refs). Here they discuss ways in which pro-stadia and prod-subsidy advocates consider independent academics as 'quacks' and rubbish the studies they do.Sam Richardsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05349817484911554144noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-22093469458286400172012-02-09T12:51:44.468+13:002012-02-09T12:51:44.468+13:00Great post, Eric - this cuts to the chase as far a...Great post, Eric - this cuts to the chase as far as the rationale behind these types of studies. Kevin Delaney and Rick Eckstein (Public Dollars, Private Stadiums) refer to these types of studies as fantasy documents. These documents tend to be most effective in converting the marginal voters from the "no" camp to the "yes" camp. Ethically defendable practice? Hmm.Sam Richardsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05349817484911554144noreply@blogger.com