tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post642011220898846941..comments2024-03-28T09:22:36.967+13:00Comments on Offsetting Behaviour: Two OCR markets go in...Eric Cramptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-33008669006689869082012-05-09T10:25:16.936+12:002012-05-09T10:25:16.936+12:00As it should be!As it should be!Matt Nolanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05615455113796090765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-54868523751893937722012-05-08T15:13:58.851+12:002012-05-08T15:13:58.851+12:00"But I have zero knowledge of whether anybody..."But I have zero knowledge of whether anybody from RBNZ trades on iPredict" <br />I certainly know of a few RBNZ employees who do trade on iPredictAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-35321465526235771162012-05-08T14:57:19.183+12:002012-05-08T14:57:19.183+12:00IMO, they should trade hard ... government departm...IMO, they should trade hard ... government departments can be a little cautious of markets though ;)Matt Nolanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05615455113796090765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-22619247065436346612012-05-08T14:19:13.696+12:002012-05-08T14:19:13.696+12:00I don't know whether RBNZ banned trading. But ...I don't know whether RBNZ banned trading. But I would certainly expect that an RBNZ analyst putting sufficient money on the line to hit those OIS markets would be fired; a bit of mucking around on iPredict after work isn't too likely to be noticed by anybody. RBNZ would have good reason to ban their guys from trading if they want an externally generated signal of market expectations. But I have zero knowledge of whether anybody from RBNZ trades on iPredict.Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-44333938735134814022012-05-08T14:18:17.999+12:002012-05-08T14:18:17.999+12:00It would be awfully fun to go back through all of ...<i> It would be awfully fun to go back through all of the closed iPredict contracts to see whether they, or Credit Suisse, provide the better predictor of OCR changes. </i><br /><br />You have a strange definition of fun there, Eric :)Latsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-46565547074427751952012-05-08T14:04:51.709+12:002012-05-08T14:04:51.709+12:00"So if I'm reading that right, it's a..."So if I'm reading that right, it's an 81% chance of a 25 BP cut (or a 40.5% chance of a 50 BP, or some mix, unless they've some particularly good way sorting out those kinds of issues)."<br /><br />Your reading is right, it is indeed some mix of the two.<br /><br />"Credit Suisse is where the big money plays are tallied; iPredict is more likely to have insiders."<br /><br />True. I was under the impression they had banned trading at the RBNZ - also I'd note that they are nowhere near making a decision yet ... there are a few weeks to go.<br /><br />At the same time, the OIS market is swamped by overseas traders who in reality are trading on less information than bank economists here - so with global data shifting they could well be over-reacting.<br /><br />We will see I guess. Tbh, I'm more interested in just seeing what gets said by the Bank in June, and how different issues are having an influence on the NZ economy, then I am about whether they cut or not ;)Matt Nolanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05615455113796090765noreply@blogger.com