tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post3478166264636292645..comments2024-03-28T09:22:36.967+13:00Comments on Offsetting Behaviour: Alcohol statsEric Cramptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-69348408257553344272012-08-27T01:02:23.890+12:002012-08-27T01:02:23.890+12:00Comments at the Press hold out little hope for a f...Comments at the Press hold out little hope for a future NZ of citizens who can actually think unfortunately ...MrVnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-20820679561591455732012-08-26T11:27:33.132+12:002012-08-26T11:27:33.132+12:00Standard economic models cannot predict crises lik...Standard economic models cannot predict crises like that observed in 2008-09. Yes and No! They cannot predict when it is going to happen, but just that we know it will eventually happen. If you toss 1-dye, cannot predict the outcome. But if you toss a dye 1-million times and sum the outcome, then the prediction is 3.5 million which will be very close to the actual number. Economists have two problems: They do not take into account the importance or random events, which by their definition cannot be predicted; and second they confuse predicting equilibrium with predicting the path to equilibrium. As noted by Keynes, even he could not accomplish the latter.<br /><br /><br />The Financial Historial Ednoreply@blogger.com