tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post5083505436832461273..comments2024-03-28T09:22:36.967+13:00Comments on Offsetting Behaviour: Alcohol's awful superpower - road toll editionEric Cramptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-41664872798137277222013-11-06T15:56:08.139+13:002013-11-06T15:56:08.139+13:00You can easily get boggled by statistics. They are...You can easily get boggled by statistics. They are used primarily to obfuscate commonly observable facts. <br /><br />Nothing beats observation.<br />Nothing beats science.<br />Sadly, nothing beats intelligence.<br /><br /><br />No intelligent female will drink more than 2 cocktails in a night.<br />No intelligent male trying to seduce her, will do more.<br />We have the science: <br /><br />ANY alcohol in the body is dangerous when mixed with the tired, frustrated, angry drivers out there. Add in the drivers also under the age of reason (22) plus the majority of dumb ones (fearless), so lowering the alcohol limit to zero HAS to be a positive (just one) step in reducing wasteful medical costs.<br />But nothing can work without "punishment to suit the crime".<br />Ask any local traffic cop. They even get to know the ones they pull up regularly for multitudes of **repeated** offences.<br /><br /><br />As a good medical specialist friend of mine says, "we can't even measure the neural disruption of most drivers on the road any more. Almost everyone is a walking chemical cocktail, starting with the constant dosage of fluoride+chlorine+aluminium hydroxide they've ingested through their hot morning shower."himagainhttp://netcapitalisation.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-59548259749261942402013-11-06T09:52:28.924+13:002013-11-06T09:52:28.924+13:00Yep I got that and agree with you entirely. Just a...Yep I got that and agree with you entirely. Just annoys me how people always when dealing with statistics remove something and forgot to add in the effect of the replacement.bmknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-2845733301466189192013-11-05T20:35:09.515+13:002013-11-05T20:35:09.515+13:00Looking at the road toll of just over 300, about 2...Looking at the road toll of just over 300, about 26% of deaths due to alcohol (BAC 80+)being a factor and an estimated 3.4 deaths BAC 50-80.. it looks to me that your road killer is much more likely to be sober, that the drunk driver is three times less likely to kill you and the likelihood of being killed by a driver of BAC 50-80 is miniscule.<br /><br /><br />You know.. I think we should take a serious look at those sober drivers who kill and injure the vast majority on our roads.<br /><br /><br />JCJCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-33350842914244130252013-11-05T19:56:43.932+13:002013-11-05T19:56:43.932+13:00Car black boxes that automatically signal the poli...Car black boxes that automatically signal the police in case of speeding, sustained loss of traction, or anything else suspicious.Eric Cramptonhttp://offsettingbehaviour.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-15433708614901329052013-11-05T19:56:00.740+13:002013-11-05T19:56:00.740+13:00Agree entirely, BMK. The highest possible non-utte...Agree entirely, BMK. The highest possible non-utterly-insane number would have a 30% drop. The highest plausible number would be much much lower: alcohol is contributory in each of those but can hardly be causal in all. <br /><br /><br />Agree sober people have accidents too and so base rate accidents have to be added back in. Again - was trying to point out how off-the-scale nuts Lees-Galloway's numbers were.Eric Cramptonhttp://offsettingbehaviour.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-66688874392480320702013-11-05T19:07:41.902+13:002013-11-05T19:07:41.902+13:00I am interested in the measurability of these acci...I am interested in the measurability of these accident<br />causes. <br />For instance how do you determine from a dead man [ fatal<br />accident ] if he lost control, was diverted, sleepy or asleep, aggressive, didn’t see properly, didn’t care, dodging pot holes, looking at trees, trying to scare a cyclist, worried about his kids, .. that’s right you can’t .<br />Its road traffic nonsense.<br />Now the measurable.<br />This guy has 0.05 % alcohol in system... therefore an alcohol related death,<br />Yeah,Paul Scottnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-56972742786276842312013-11-05T18:15:29.451+13:002013-11-05T18:15:29.451+13:00Surely the government should be banning loss of co...Surely the government should be banning loss of control?Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-37119182188425853272013-11-05T18:05:53.160+13:002013-11-05T18:05:53.160+13:00If we assume that alcohol and all other drugs disa...<em>If we assume that alcohol and all other drugs disappeared, and that every crash that they contributed towards would never have happened, the best you could hope for is getting rid of 30% of fatal crashes and 14% of injury crashes.</em> <br /><br /><br />I would think that you wouldn't even get that much as some/most of those trips would still need to be taken and sober people still have accidents. So say drugged/drunk drivers are 5 times more likely (number purely conjured to make point) to crash then you could remove that 30% but you'd have to add 6% back. So even if you magically removed drugs and alcohol I think you could only end up with a 25% fatal crash reduction.bmknoreply@blogger.com