tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post5378809950687445908..comments2024-03-28T09:22:36.967+13:00Comments on Offsetting Behaviour: Probabilistic PetersEric Cramptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-22635618054722265782011-07-24T16:07:15.755+12:002011-07-24T16:07:15.755+12:00lets get real. New Zealand is in trouble.
Our curr...lets get real. New Zealand is in trouble.<br />Our currency and our economy are bankrupt care of successive Nat and LAB Governments.<br />Peters advocates that we place our New Zealand first, ahead of international politic.<br />Is that radical or what.peterquixotehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15873112816453062068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-45240423953221628422011-07-24T15:06:31.046+12:002011-07-24T15:06:31.046+12:00Is there a derivatives market in iPredict? :-)Is there a derivatives market in iPredict? :-)Bill Bennetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10116568601520339391noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-80279646350564595462011-07-23T22:41:14.085+12:002011-07-23T22:41:14.085+12:00@Andrew: You just need a few rational arbitrageurs...@Andrew: You just need a few rational arbitrageurs to solve your first one, and your second applies across all contracts; they other contracts have reasonable prices.<br /><br />@Alfred: You then need a fattish long right tail above 5%, right? SO that if they break 5%, they're likely to hit 8 or somesuch? I just don't buy it.Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-50975941139752527692011-07-23T19:41:32.058+12:002011-07-23T19:41:32.058+12:00There is no contradiction. It is perfectly possibl...There is no contradiction. It is perfectly possible that there could be a 22% chance of the NZ first vote being greater than 5% (Peters contract), but that the expectation of the NZ first vote is 5% (vote share contract). You just need a probability distribution with expectation greater than median, something like the log normal distribution would probably be appropriate in this case.Alfrednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-71346099427852437542011-07-23T17:07:40.412+12:002011-07-23T17:07:40.412+12:00Potential explanation 4: People are not rational (...Potential explanation 4: People are not rational (economic beings).<br /><br />Potntial explanation 5: There is uncertainty about the future (a point Keynes made).Andrew Rnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-2766165108741928252011-07-23T15:37:34.618+12:002011-07-23T15:37:34.618+12:00There's no return to be had in getting NZ Firs...There's no return to be had in getting NZ First down from 5% to 3% if you believed that to be the true price; you'd have to have way too much capital locked up for way too long for a <3% return.Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-61668299644941671262011-07-23T14:39:48.659+12:002011-07-23T14:39:48.659+12:00I made the same play, but everytime I short the vo...I made the same play, but everytime I short the vote share down to about 4.8% or so it bounces back up. Somebody is buying the vote share contracts at just under 5%. Is the market really that thin?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com