tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post6511434042188032854..comments2024-03-28T09:22:36.967+13:00Comments on Offsetting Behaviour: Hedge that risk...Eric Cramptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-15599739149702433822010-08-10T14:37:46.710+12:002010-08-10T14:37:46.710+12:00Hmm. So the liquidity constraints at iPredict are...Hmm. So the liquidity constraints at iPredict are working to distort the market. I guess I knew that, but an interesting specific example nonetheless.PaulLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17880559466808887420noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-4588031616819111812010-08-10T13:51:26.254+12:002010-08-10T13:51:26.254+12:00Short answer: because Labor contracts are expensiv...Short answer: because Labor contracts are expensive and I'm not without liquidity constraints. I have a whole ton of free cash sitting at iPredict since some other contracts closed; playing at CentreBet requires sending them money. And cashing money out of iPredict to send to CentreBet is something I don't want to do given the deposit limits at iPredict. Whichever side wound up relatively cheap at iPredict would be the one I wound up taking a long position on.Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-12370796854853453582010-08-10T13:21:34.481+12:002010-08-10T13:21:34.481+12:00Why not convert your position to one where you win...Why not convert your position to one where you win both ways? Seems far more satisfying. It seems likely Labour will win, so whilst it will be gratifying to say "I had all these bets on the Libs, but even when Labour won it cost me nothing", surely you'd get much more pleasure from "my position meant I won either way".<br /><br />My personal satisfaction curve would have me making more for a Labour win than a Liberal one - since my happiness at a Liberal win would mean I don't need much financial reward to compensate. <br /><br />Reminds me of my father in law telling me he bet on the Wallabies to win the Bledisloe, so that if the All Blacks lost he'd at least have some consolation.PaulLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17880559466808887420noreply@blogger.com