tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post6762819335523924022..comments2024-03-18T15:42:43.140+13:00Comments on Offsetting Behaviour: Best not to leave a live dragon out of your calculationsEric Cramptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-76487767985949547662014-02-08T09:26:16.267+13:002014-02-08T09:26:16.267+13:00Do you by chance know anyone that has done a psych...Do you by chance know anyone that has done a psychoanalysis of Smaug? If so would you mind emailing me at daniel59802@gmail.com<br /><br />Danielnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-57735003561336875332013-01-13T13:51:22.278+13:002013-01-13T13:51:22.278+13:00After leaving Eriebor (and the events of The Hobbi...After leaving Eriebor (and the events of The Hobbit), Balin (one of the 14) moved to Moria, and temporarily lived there, before being attacked.<br />Balin was Gimli's uncle, hence why he thought it was safe to go there (he hadn't had news of his death).KPnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-78124593543324200362013-01-13T07:30:58.073+13:002013-01-13T07:30:58.073+13:00Of course. But if mithril could substitute for gol...Of course. But if mithril could substitute for gold for some ceremonial purposes or if Moria also had gold veins accompanying the mithril lode...Eric Cramptonhttp://offsettingbehaviour.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-88732939722696123322013-01-13T00:43:27.148+13:002013-01-13T00:43:27.148+13:00That for which the dwarves delved too deep was ano...That for which the dwarves delved too deep was another important commodity, mithril.<br />Paulnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-33105080011536946362013-01-02T08:10:47.656+13:002013-01-02T08:10:47.656+13:00Crud. You are right. I knew Thror's people sou...Crud. You are right. I knew Thror's people sought refuge there after Smaug but forgot that they were reclaiming it rather than going to an established Dwarven city. Gimli's thinking it was safe also threw me.Eric Cramptonhttp://offsettingbehaviour.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-60394762454987285222013-01-02T05:54:58.569+13:002013-01-02T05:54:58.569+13:00i'm pretty certain Moria was lost before Erieb...i'm pretty certain Moria was lost before Eriebor.Tom Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-21459812071019126262012-12-31T20:54:21.049+13:002012-12-31T20:54:21.049+13:00I'll hit on the dwarvish birth rate first. I d...I'll hit on the dwarvish birth rate first. I don't know why, but there's only one dwarvish woman for every 3-4 men. See http://lotr.wikia.com/wiki/Dwarves . That affects birth rates. And, according to the same article, some dwarvish women don't marry for lack of interest. I don't know how this is an equilibrium, either in the evolutionary biology sense or in the economic sense. Maybe dwarves used to war far more often and so had very high male attrition rates, leading to odd selection pressures. But even still, you'd expect at least some dwarves to be able to bid enough for human or hobbit wives. <br /><br />Point taken on the size of Smaug's hoard. But note that much of the dwarvish part of that hoard (a twelfth came from Dale) would never have really been in circulation - the dwarves hoarded almost as badly as the dragon. A big chunk of that pile would have been in goblets and the like that serves as potential money that could be drawn into circulation were the real price of gold to rise, and I suppose that the expectation of that potential reserve stock could also have real effects. <br /><br />I'm also pretty happy to believe that prices could have been very sticky in the Tolkien world, making the monetary effects worse. If I remember correctly, prices rarely wound up working to equilibrate things as scarcity pinched; instead, shortages obtained. <br /><br />But monetary effects of that sort would have dispersed across the whole world by the time of the Hobbit (a Dwarf generation after Smaug took the Mountain); the Desolation remained confined to Smaug's immediate surroundings. <br /><br />In the counterfactual where gold remained in circulation, there's no way Dale would have been rebuilt - Smaug would have burned it down again. And Lake Town would have had a hard time prospering again - even if somehow a monetary push brought some new great innovation into production in Lake Town, the town's prosperity and gold, right next door to the Lonely Mountain, would have just attracted Smaug back again. <br /><br />.Eric Cramptonhttp://offsettingbehaviour.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-76816148223885031492012-12-31T16:32:32.759+13:002012-12-31T16:32:32.759+13:00Eric - excellent analysis of the fiscal consequenc...Eric - excellent analysis of the fiscal consequences of dragon invasion. <br /><br />While not denying the impacts of dragon invasion on the real economy, I maintain that the monetary angle is both important and underappreciated. According to the World Gold Council (quoted in Wikipedia) "all the gold ever mined totaled 165,000 tonnes.[2] This can be represented by a cube with an edge length of about 20.28 meters." Over half of that has been mined since 1950. Compare the picture of Smaug's pile pictured in the Hobbit (and my post) with a 20 metre square cube - Smaug's pile is significant relative to total global historical gold production. It's hard to believe that this would not have caused a serious monetary shock in an economy using gold for coins.<br /><br /><br /><br />B.t.w., any idea why the dwarvish birth rate was so low?Frances Woolleynoreply@blogger.com