tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post7085377710283598817..comments2024-03-28T09:22:36.967+13:00Comments on Offsetting Behaviour: Stat of the weekEric Cramptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-90092001417090882072012-04-04T16:19:57.219+12:002012-04-04T16:19:57.219+12:00I put a comment there this morning, but they reall...I put a comment there this morning, but they really really need instead to put in a footnote and correction.Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-42523704754438864162012-04-04T13:27:37.709+12:002012-04-04T13:27:37.709+12:00Ahh, good to know. Sadly I doubt his efforts, howe...Ahh, good to know. Sadly I doubt his efforts, however noble, will make any real difference. People seem not to care about the accuracy of quoted figures any more, but only that they are "sexy" or capture the imagination in some way.Latsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-61035746715059330732012-04-04T12:37:39.307+12:002012-04-04T12:37:39.307+12:00Eric sent a Letter to the Editor, I think it was i...Eric sent a Letter to the Editor, I think it was in Monday's editionDuncannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-84582309134467247372012-04-04T12:18:27.588+12:002012-04-04T12:18:27.588+12:00I note that the story on Stuff is still open for c...I note that the story on Stuff is still open for comments Eric. I'm surprised you haven't seen fit to jump on there and debunk his figures :)Latsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-35130687358419173082012-04-04T11:44:38.430+12:002012-04-04T11:44:38.430+12:00The big error made by the journalist is thinking t...The big error made by the journalist is thinking that the Australian number, which covers costs to the country including costs borne by smokers themselves, is a measure of the costs to the health system. He uses that to extrapolate a cost to the NZ health system that is seriously out of line with the first WHO thing he quoted saying costs to the health system are less than 15% of health budgets; he's saying, on his derivation , that costs are 50% of the health budget.<br /><br />It's easy to conflate "social costs of X" as meaning "costs to the taxpayer". The Collins and Lapsley Report, which is almost certainly what the journalist is relying on, makes it easy to make that conflation unless you're willing to read it carefully. That's one reason that "Social costs of X" studies really annoy me.Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-10231820318081737652012-04-03T16:49:38.556+12:002012-04-03T16:49:38.556+12:00First, there's a huge difference between all t...First, there's a huge difference between all the stuff you're adding up and "taxpayers fork out about $7 billion a year to treat smoking-related diseases." That by itself is enough for a bad stat nomination.<br /><br />Second, note that the O'Dea report included all of that stuff in its final figure - the $350m I'm citing from it is just on the costs to the Ministry of Health. And it got a total figure of $1.7b. You're trying to tell me that the O'Dea report understated social costs by $5.3 billion? No way.Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-86457610542323816002012-04-03T16:31:16.282+12:002012-04-03T16:31:16.282+12:00My estimate would be that the cigarettes themselve...My estimate would be that the cigarettes themselves cost about $1.7b (2.4b smoked a year), and health costs about the same, using the WHO report - did you check their assumptions? That's already $3.4b (although some of the sticker price pays for the health costs - don't know if they both count in GDP). I suspect they get their figure by putting a price on deaths - there are 5000 smoking deaths a year in NZ. Road deaths are priced at $4.2m. Road deaths cut an average of 45 years off your life, smoking about 15, so the deaths might add about $7b to the total cost of smoking. Halve it for caution and there's your total of $7b.<br />To me it does seem plausible and not a "bad statistic of the week".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-83338105832753885152012-04-01T18:17:53.297+12:002012-04-01T18:17:53.297+12:00very funny Eric, trying to cure Fairfax of stupidi...very funny Eric, trying to cure Fairfax of stupidity and crass,and illiteracy, and innumeracy ; we're right behind you Eric, you go first though; <br />and I think even my spelling is ok this timepeterquixotehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15873112816453062068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-44204926164742778402012-04-01T09:30:32.780+12:002012-04-01T09:30:32.780+12:00With innumeracy as bad as in that Press piece, it&...With innumeracy as bad as in that Press piece, it's hard to know where to start....Eric Cramptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-68097688879187534522012-04-01T08:48:05.800+12:002012-04-01T08:48:05.800+12:00"According to the World Health Organisation&#..."According to the World Health Organisation's Economics of Tobacco Toolkit, health costs attributed to smoking account for between 6 per cent and 15 per cent of national healthcare expenditure in developed countries.<br /><br />In Australia, smoking costs equated to between 2.1 per cent and 3.4 per cent of gross domestic product."<br /><br />He should have noticed that even these two stats are way out of kilter. 6 - 15 percent of our health bill would be about $780-1,950 million as opposed to 2.1 and 3.4 percent of our gdp which would be $3.57 - 5.78 billion.<br /><br />Where did he get $7 billion from??<br /><br />(As you note Treasury down so used figures from memory)Lindsay Mitchellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04437693272797130833noreply@blogger.com