tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post7159535447427335372..comments2024-03-28T09:22:36.967+13:00Comments on Offsetting Behaviour: Are wickets more likely on hat-trick balls? Eric Cramptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15831696523324469713noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-29621436318079478452013-10-24T14:35:51.611+13:002013-10-24T14:35:51.611+13:00Nice point about the endogenous response of umpire...Nice point about the endogenous response of umpires and the fact that the batsman (f it is a within-over hat- trick) won't have been padded up when the 1st wicket fell. I'm not sure about the fielder effect. It could go either way; they will be more alert but possibly also have the same effect as a nervous batsman losing fluency of movement.Seamus Hogannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-23186909119974972032013-10-24T13:09:43.861+13:002013-10-24T13:09:43.861+13:00I think you could still find statistical significa...I think you could still find statistical significance because<br />- Bowler has good rhythm (has just taken two wickets)<br />- More aggressive field set <br />- Fielders concentration high (less likely to drop a catch)<br />- Batsman under immense pressure and nervous (feet not moving etc.)<br />- Batsman possibly is rushed to get ready and hasn't fully prepared as they would (mentally and physically)<br />-Umpire possibly caught up in hype and more likely to raise fingerJohnnynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-25042925360093921012013-10-24T09:50:00.840+13:002013-10-24T09:50:00.840+13:00As a club umpire, Donal, you will have witnessed a...As a club umpire, Donal, you will have witnessed a lot more hat-trick balls than I have. I wonder, however, if there is a difference between club cricket and test cricket. In particular, are club cricketers more likely than test cricketers to be looking for runs from the first ball they face and hence have a margin on which they can adjust to being more defensive should they be on a hat-trick ball. My sense is that batsmen are looking purely to get a feel of the pitch on the first ball they face, and so there is no additional conservatism possible for hat-trick balls.Seamus Hogannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2830084253401570472.post-32368467199097442842013-10-23T11:43:56.443+13:002013-10-23T11:43:56.443+13:00Hmmm. I spent 6-7 years umpiring the top level of ...Hmmm. I spent 6-7 years umpiring the top level of club cricket in Auckland, so here are some experience-based thoughts on your conditional probability question. Yes, it's undoubtedly true that behaviours change, especially setting more aggressive fields (usually an ultra-aggressive one for the hat trick ball). So it's ntirely an emprical issue on which (changing) incentives will prevail. But I suspect the changing behaviour of the batsman will dominate the outcome. It's hard to get batsmen out even when they're playing their shots, and an order of magnitude harder again when the batsman shuts up shop (rather like trying to win at chess when one player is playing for a draw). My guess would be, greater batting defensiveness will make a third-ball wicket less likelyDonal Curtinnoreply@blogger.com