Pachauri to resign?

New market up at iPredict:

Rajendra Pachauri to be stood down or removed as chair of IPCC before 1 May 2010

Long Description

This contract pays $1 if Rajendra K. Pachauri is stood down or permanently removed as chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) before 1 May 2010. Otherwise this contract pays $0.

Judging Criteria

The purpose of this contract is to measure the likelihood that Dr Pachauri is stood down or permanently removed from his position as chair of the IPCC.

This contract will pay $1 in the event Dr Pachauri is stood down or permanently removed as chair of the IPCC. This includes but is not limited to his dismissal, resignation, suspension, or him taking indefinite or extended leave from that position for any reason.

This contract will not close and pay out in the event of Dr Pachauri taking a vacation or temporary time away from work due to minor sickness. If after two weeks of sickness leave, and in iPredict's sole judgment, there is no credible timeframe for Dr Pachauri's return, then this contract will close at pay $1. In this instance, iPredict reserves the right to wait for new information about Dr Pachauri's status if it appears new information will be imminently available.

Dr Pachauri's standing down or permanent removal must take effect before 1 May 2010 NZ standard time for this contract to pay $1.

I had figured $0.20 a fair price on this; I'm revising up to about $0.45 with today's calls for his resignation from folks within the climate research establishment (see here and here).