Rumour mongering [updated]

Current rumours about Canterbury post earthquake, none verified, some mutually contradictory. [note: updated below]

• Registry building a complete write-off, even earthquake search professionals too scared to go in
• Commerce building munted, to be demolished
• Commerce building not that bad, but some obvious problems in stairwells that may point to worse elsewhere
• We'll never be let back into Commerce
• We may be let into Commerce next week in short timed shifts accompanied by earthquake search people to grab critical stuff for the coming semester

The daily (weekday) updates from SMT via email, and posted on the UC website, are helpful. But the Powers That Be seem determined to say nothing beyond that which they know with certainty. I'd like to think that Faculty could be trusted with some probabilistic assessments.

I'd love to see iPredict prices, especially if Senior Management Team insiders were trading, on a contract paying $1 if I were allowed to re-enter my office this week. $0.10? $0.90? How about for a contract paying $1 if I were ever allowed to re-enter my office? What would be highest bid and lowest ask for each of the following?

• University daycare reopening this week
• Daycare reopening within the fortnight
• Registry being demolished
• Registry being able to be reoccupied within two years? One year?
• Access to the Commerce building (over various time horizons - weeks to months)
• Reoccupation of the Commerce building (over various time horizons - weeks to months)

And the bit that has a fair number of folks up at night, or those of us that pay minor attention to the University's finances: whether the listing of natural disasters as a risk to investors in the University's philantropic bond offering means the University is not in trouble with the bond-holders should our international student numbers take a dive for the next couple of years.

Update: We're to be let back into our offices in short shifts. Timed twenty minute slots from the time we enter the building to the time we're back out. Each accompanied by a rescuer. Through the one stairwell that's safe. Tuesday and Wednesday.

"Please bear in mind that you will be limited to what you can safely carry and you will have a maximum of 10 minutes in your office to locate and retrieve your materials."

Fortunately, I still have my pack from backpacking Europe.

Daycare likely to open by 14 March.