Wednesday, 24 September 2014

The quake vote

Were I still in the business of proposing future honours research projects at Canterbury, I'd be pitching this one. Anybody please feel free to run with it: I'd love to know how it goes.
The National Party decisively won the 2014 election, taking the Party Vote in all but the poorest of Christchurch suburbs. While National polled well even in Christchurch's more earthquake-affected Eastern suburbs, National polled well everywhere. 
Take 2008, 2011, and 2014 polling-place election data. Combine it with Census data for the meshblocks forming the natural catchment for each polling place. Predict National's 2008 party vote on the basis of underlying demographic characteristics. See whether changes in those characteristics predict changes in local-level National Party support in 2011 and 2014 for areas outside of Christchurch. Then, add in CERA data on land earthquake status in Christchurch as additional explanatory variable for Christchurch in 2011 and 2014. Christchurch's poorer neighbourhoods were also its more quake-affected ones. Was voting in quake-affected poorer Christchurch neighbourhoods substantially different from voting in poorer Auckland or Wellington neighbourhoods?
Can we reasonably interpret Christchurch's pro-National vote as endorsement of the handling of the rebuild? If more quake-affected polling places returned a higher-than-otherwise-expected National vote, then perhaps we can. If National fared more poorly than expected in the more quake-affected polling places, then perhaps not. You could also exploit split-ticket voting here. Informal Twitter discussion after the election suggested Labour voters would support their local Labour MP while giving their Party Vote to National as expression of disapproval with the Labour leadership or of support for National's overall policy agenda. Was split-ticket voting in Christchurch different from split-ticket voting elsewhere, correcting for the pre-quake Christchurch split-ticket vote in 2008? Was Gerry Brownlee's electorate vote stronger or weaker than we might expect for a government Minister?
If it is possible to get EQC and CERA data on the proportion of completed earthquake claims in each meshblock, that would be a fine additional variable. Finally, if you have time, give some thought to how migration from 2008 to 2014 might have affected results: would the out-migration of the worst-affected residents introduce attenuation bias?
I would love to know how EQC completion rates affected National's Party and Electorate votes.

1 comment:

  1. Another big 1080 spread on the West coast. So many more protected creatures killed, so many waterways modified, so many more millions of dollars ending up in the bank accounts of the orchestrators, the operators and the contractors.

    I am not against any of this by the way, for history and the mind benders has shown all of us so many times that we always empower and strengthen the very things we oppose or resist. Nature and the future minders on the other hand has taught us time and time again that a win-win alternative works way better than warring against things, especially if they are stronger than us. If they are weaker than us, a simple bit of legislation is sufficient to subdue.

    Oh yes, about the Weka. I guess the Guinea Pig, Rabbit, Chicken, Duck, Quail, Pheasant, Goose, Possum, Hedgehog, Camel, Water Buffalo, Indian Elephant, Deer, Alpaca, Lama, Ostrich, Dingo, Budgie, Cockatiel, Cow, Canary, Zebra Finch, Bearded Dragon, Turtle, Goldfish, Horse and Donkey would all have been doing just fine in their tourism - geared clean green reservations under the expert guidance of Doc, lovingly protected from becoming extinct. Ooopps, I almost forgot the Sheep!!

    It is safe to follow the follower. Biologists have probably proved this, as science needs something to exist first so that it can be studied. So, nothing new. By LAW, scientifically correct. Again, I have nothing against any of this. They have done a fine job for all of us, so far. Just look around you.

    When you walk through another devoid of all life newly paid for 1080 bit of clean green New Zealand pristine forest, please help to find an alternative instead of going through the trauma of resisting or trying to change something. You simply can't. The machine running this thing is just too big. Help it to find something else to exploit where they can make just as much money. Preferably think out a project where we can actually pay them their millions to stay at home where they can love their children and their loved ones. Unless we find alternatives to keep them busy we are doomed, and so are the evildoers. Win-Win?

    Is this possible? I guess not. There has never been a dairy farm, chicken farm, dog breeder, horse breeder or successful pet shop in the history of the world. Incidentally, the Cheetah in Africa has been taken off the critically endangered list by a single captive breeding project.

    Please don't take anything I have said here seriously. Our current world consists out of 3 tribes. Yes, only 3 left. FutureMinders, EvilDoers and InnoCents. I am simply one of them. Please forgive me.