End to the golden trade weather

Vangelis Vitalis knows what he's talking about in trade, making this particularly depressing. 

At BusinessDesk ($, you should subscribe; I do)

Vitalis said the rules NZ depended on at the WTO were no longer fit for purpose. 

“We can still take cases, but their foreseeability now is really in question because you can no longer hear appeals to the case.”  

Geopolitics 

Vitalis said geopolitics was back in a way “that we have not experienced previously”, particularly between China and the United States which was “intense and difficult”. 

“Don’t get caught in the cross fire. If you’re in any doubt about how challenging and bruising this can get, just ask Australian wine exporters, just ask Australia barley exporters, just ask Australia coal exporters.” 

As recently as the weekend, Australia withdrew its action against China at the WTO after it dropped tariffs on Australia barley, which had been in place for three years. 

Australia is, however, still pursuing its action on wine tariffs. 

Vitalis said the challenges out there were real and NZ was going to need to think about how it managed and mitigated those risks. 

NZ had relied on US leadership in trade policy for big achievements, such as Uruguay Round, however they were no longer in that space.

China is a more reliable trade partner for New Zealand than the US is, if New Zealand is willing to never say much about the Chinese Government's atrocities. 

The US claims to be a partner and claims to want to reduce Chinese influence in the Pacific. But when it comes down to it, Congress is more interested in protecting its farmers from competition from NZ meat and dairy. Persistent problems in US baby formula supply chains; NZ has lots to sell, but the US prefers to keep blocking it. 

So if you're Prime Minister, what the hell do you do? 

Take a more principled stand on geopolitics, which would likely mean sharp restrictions on NZ exports to China and continued US refusal to allow imports from NZ? Get friendlier with China, which could make it harder for NZ to keep doing awesome stuff in the aerospace sector that depends on tech transfer agreements with the US? Try to keep balancing on an ever-narrowing beam?