That's consistent with what we'd expect. But we'd also want to know:
- What was the pattern in hiring declines in prior recessions by firm size? Are larger or smaller firms more likely to freeze hiring plans? If it were previously the case that small firms were quicker to cut hiring, NZIER's estimates understate the real effects.
- We need to know something about firings at those firms as well. I'd expect somebody at one of the leftie blogs to make the claim that those firms were hiring more because they were firing more and that it's all just churn. That seems very unlikely. But it would be nice to have the data.