If we do not put a brick over our toilet seat and keep the lid closed, we face unknown but small probability p that sewerage works will cause a horrendous poo explosion in our bathroom. Denote the cost of same as C.
If we do put a brick over our toilet seat and keep the lid closed, we face unknown but much higher probability r that the delays caused by said brick will result in a toilet training failure involving the three year old. Denote the cost of same as M.
p < r
C >>> M
pC < = > rM ???
Insurance may somewhat attenuate cleanup costs C. But we are with AMI.
Thus far, we have no brick on our toilet. I hope we don't need a bailout.