All the chatter about whether the All Blacks' Rugby World Cup victory had any effect on the upcoming election baffles me.
I'm told that it was a very close game and that New Zealand beat France by a single point despite being such heavy favourites going in that one Irish bookmaker paid out assuming no chance of a French victory. So the closeness of the game then should have been a surprise, right?
If a rugby loss would have substantially affected election outcomes, then we should have seen all kinds of action on PM.National and PM.Labour the night of the game. Instead, here's trading:
There was absolutely no trading during the world cup, nor was there much immediately after the result.
Seamus tells me that despite the All Blacks being ahead for the first part of the game, France got within a point around the 48 minute mark. And for a period near the end, Seamus put better than even odds on France winning. If a French victory would have substantially affected National's re-election chances, there would have been substantial trading when France got within a point, then again when victory was assured.
Why bother with all the armchair election speculation if we have market traders telling us that it really didn't matter? I can't see anything distinguishable from noise on the vote share market either.