Coalitions

Peter Ellis's NZ election simulations show a 58% chance that any coalition would require New Zealand First in it. 

So 58% chance that Winston is in either coalition, and an additional 6% chance that Winston makes the tie that puts a Winston-Labour coalition neck-and-neck with National's coalition.

So there looks to be zero chance of Labour's being able to put together a coalition that does not involve New Zealand First. But there's reasonable chance that National could.

There are some New Zealand First policies I like. I think the version they've been pitching for shunting some GST revenues back to Councils is completely unworkable, but there are workable ways of achieving that objective - and finding better ways of funding Councils and improving their incentives is rather important. NZ First is more sympathetic than most parties to devolution as well.

But if New Zealand First's strong anti-immigration position is your biggest concern, I think that has to argue for a strategic vote for one of National's current coalition partners that has been pro-immigration: ACT, United Future, or potentially The Maori Party with Carrie Stoddart-Smith now there as candidate.

Voters of the left who are pro-immigration will have a difficult time this go-round.