Unemployment forecasts

iPredict, the New Zealand events market, has contracts on the Kiwi unemployment rate. Real money contracts, but trading open only to Kiwis.

The markets are pegging 5.8% unemployment for the June quarter, 6.5% for the September quarter and 6.9% for the December quarter. There's a 44% chance that unemployment turns the corner on or before March quarter 2010 with an additional 30% chance of a first decline in unemployment in June 2010.

Traders there also reckon that there's a 43% chance that the first OCR increase comes before 1 April 2010 and a 60% chance of an increase before July 2010.

On GDP growth rates, prices suggest that June 2009 quarter figures will show a decline, but that there's only a 50/50 chance of a negative showing in the September quarter and a 24% chance of negative results in December.

If the market prices are right, things will start turning around in New Zealand reasonably soon, though with employment lagging. If that seems out of line, and you're Kiwi, start trading!