I started long on no change and short on the various increases.
But I've since switched to short no change, long 25 cent, short all other increases. The best bet is to expect Key not to do something completely stupid (increase > 75 cents) but not to do the right thing either.
Come on, Key, make me lose my shirt shorting MINWAGE.2010.NC. This is money I want to lose. Make it happen.
Update: The NBR calls out Kiwi economic illiteracy:
When the 2025 Taskforce made its controversial list of proposals for increasing New Zealand’s economic performance to catch up to Australia’s, it missed an obvious one.Hit the Economic Thinking tag for correlates of economic thinking in New Zealand....
The only way to really lift New Zealand’s woeful economic performance is to smack every New Zealander over the head with a textbook of “Economics 101”.
This nation-wide lack of financial common sense was reflected in a poll by the NZ Herald that found 61% of respondents want the minimum wage lifted to $15 an hour.
Of course, the Herald didn’t ask the follow-up question- “do you support higher unemployment, particularly among groups vulnerable to labour market changes such as young people and Maori, as well as the possible collapse of many businesses already burdened by ever-increasing government-imposed costs?”
While it may be tempting just to tut-tut at the stupidity of our fellow Kiwis and forget about it, this survey could be a sign of even worse to come.
The Unite Union is circulating a petition to get the minimum wage increased to $15 an hour and by the looks of the Herald survey, it has a good chance of getting the required number of signatures (10% of enrolled voters) to force a Citizens Initiated Referendum.
Fortunately the National government will probably ignore it like all the other CIRs this country has had.
Update: Turned out to be a 25 cent increase. Not the right thing, but not a completely stupid thing either. About what I expected.