Bernanke contracts

iPredict's contracts on Bernanke and the Dow suggest, currently:

• A 75% chance Bernanke is confirmed on or before 2 February
• The DOW closing at 10,465 on 2 February if Bernanke is confirmed as above
• The DOW closing at 10,360 if he's not confirmed by 2 February
• A 95.5% chance Bernanke will be appointed sometime (no 2 Feb restriction)

The DOW currently sits at 10,170.

I take the small gap between the two conditional contracts as indicating folks reckon the DOW will have priced in an eventual Bernanke reappointment, even if it's not by the end of his current term.

There must be an arbitrage play somewhere between Dow futures and iPredict's estimate of the unconditional value of the DOW, but the fixed costs of working it out seem high relative to the stakes.