Hobbit odds

Hobbits are known for their earthy pragmatism. Never interested in grand schemes or lofty ideals so much as in good beer and a good breakfast (and second breakfast, and elevenses, and lunch...). And so New Zealand seemed the right place for filming of The Hobbit.

But if you recall your Tolkien, you'll remember also that Saruman came to Hobbiton, in disguise and calling himself Sharkey. Sharkey sold the hobbits on a grand scheme - a scheme to share the wealth and make everyone better off. Except the only ones that did well out of it were Sharkey and his gang.

The Australian actor's union plays now the role of Sharkey, who convinced NZ Actors' Equity to pursue the sharing scheme. For more on current developments, see here and here.

Will Frodo, Sam, Merry and Pippin return, battle-hardened from Gondor in shining mithril, in time to drive off Sharkey's men? Will they convince enough of the hobbits to rise up against Sharkey? We'll have the odds soon enough when iPredict launches its contract. The draft stock definition is below. I do not envy Matt the job of drafting these things.

HOBBIT.DEPART

Short: Filming for The Hobbit to be moved off shore

Long: This contract pays $1 if, by 31 December 2010, an announcement is made or there is an authoritative media report announcing (not speculating) that a substantial proportion of the scenes for the movies “The Hobbit” which were to have been filmed in New Zealand are to be filmed in another country. Otherwise this contract pays $0.

Judging Criteria

1. This contract pays out based on the timing of the announcement, not when any filming was to have been or will be carried out.

2. It refers only to the filming (or recording by other means) of scenes involving human actors and not pre- or post-production work or scenes involving only scenery and/or computer graphics.

3. The contract will close immediately if a formal written statement is issued by Warner Bros, or if a recognised company spokesman makes a formal verbal statement, with the intention of announcing a formal and final decision by the company to the effect that all or a substantial proportion of the scenes for the movies “The Hobbit” which were to have been filmed in New Zealand are to be filmed in another country

4. “Substantial proportion” means at least 25%.

5. In the event a formal statement is not made by Warner Bros on this topic, the contract will close immediately if a formal statement is made by an authoritative figure (such as Sir Peter Jackson or John Key) to the effect that Warner Bros has nevertheless made a formal and final decision that all or a substantial proportion of the scenes for the movies “The Hobbit” which were to have been filmed in New Zealand are to be filmed in another country.

6. Evidence of the event described in paragraph 5 above would be a report in the New Zealand Herald and/or Dominion-Post quoting the authoritative figure as saying that Warner Bros has nevertheless made a formal and final decision that all or a substantial proportion of the scenes for the movies “The Hobbit” which were to have been filmed in New Zealand are to be filmed in another country.

7. If following a report such as that described in paragraph 6 above there remains doubt as to whether or not Warner Bros has made a formal and final decision that all or a substantial proportion of the scenes for the movies “The Hobbit” which were to have been filmed in New Zealand are to be filmed in another country, iPredict reserves the right to make approaches to an authoritative figure, such as the Corporate Communications Department of Warner Bros. and/or the Office of the Prime Minister or of the Minister of Economic Development of New Zealand to seek clarification.

8. If none of the events described above occur on or before 31 December 2010, the contract will close at $0.

I wonder what his seed price will be.

Update: The National Business Review covers things nicely. Thanks guys!