- Weitzman / Nordhaus for Environmental / carbon pricing
- Fehr / Thaler for behavioural
- Tirole for Industrial Organization.
Folks in the department were invited to submit their most three most likely picks. Names revealed where permission's been granted:
- Gene Grossman (Trade);
Weitzman/Nordhaus (Environmental) - says Andrea
- Tirole (IO);
Nordhaus / Weitzman (Environmental);
Kiyotaki and Moore (Macro/Finance).
- Weitzman (environmental, prices and quantities in particular);
Deaton (panel econometrics / development);
Would have gone Tirole but then too much overlap with Crampton, so Tullock
[EC curses Stockholm for its neglect of Tullock, but thinks health issues will keep them from awarding it to him now].
- Thaler/Shiller (empirical behavioral finance) [EC: Can I switch to this one too? Much better fit for my guess at how Stockholm decides.];
Posner/Tullock (rent seeking, law & economics);
Phillies over Yankees in 6 games[???].
Krueger [EC: If they give it to Krueger for rent-seeking, and Tullock's left off, Stockholm's off my Festivus card list permanently].
Fama (with wild emphatic claims from this predictor about the consequences if Stockholm continues to neglect Fama).
- Posner (law & econ);
Hart/Moore (contract theory);
"Richard Thaler behavioral claptrap" [you won't need three guesses to figure who sent this one].
- Paul Romer [EC: would be awesome];
- Thaler & Shiller;
Nordhaus & Weitzman.
Tyler posts on who he sees as prime candidates, with lots of overlap with our Departmental pool - this year's must be particularly obvious:
- Thaler joint with Shiller
- "Three prominent econometricians of your choice, bundled"
- Tirole, possibly bundled with Hart
A brave Stockholm would go with Fama to give it the opportunity to explain exactly what is meant by the efficient markets hypothesis: not that crashes won't happen but rather that we can't know when they will happen, or with Krueger/Tullock for rent-seeking, along with a likely Tullock address on rent seeking in stimulus packages. That's not going to happen.
Matt has opened markets on some of the most likely candidates at iPredict.