So New Zealand First re-enters Parliament if they get more than 5%. Winston Peters is party leader and rather likely first on their party list. If they get 5%, they get around 6 MPs. So if Peters is in the top six on their list, he's in if NZ First gets 5%.
iPredict says NZ First is likely to get 5% of the vote: trading's hovered on or just under 5% for the last month.
But iPredict says Winston Peters has a 22% chance of re-entering Parliament.
- The Vote Share market is wrong: thin, flat payoff curve
- The Peters to Re-Enter market is wrong (unlikely: thicker, binary contract)
- Peters likely to step down in favour of Michael Laws or someone else, declining to pursue re-election
Because of the chances of #3, above, I'm pretty wary of viewing the two markets as a potential arbitrage play. Anybody else have insights here?