They're currently forecasting 59 seats for National in a 122-seat Parliament. National would have its choice of ACT with 6 seats, United Future with 3 seats, or the Maori Party with 3 seats as coalition partners.
The Parliamentary Projections are largely powered by prices in the Vote Share market, but with accounting for prices in a few critical seat markets. So ACT's 6 seats would drop to zero if ACT were not to get Epsom; NZ First's 5% expected vote share would likely start turning into seats if the price on the Peters contract, discussed here, were to pass the 50% mark.
The whole initiative is sponsored by Exceltium (Matthew Hooton) and Scoop.
Awesome work guys!
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