Let's ban Mazda Demios and put an end to ram-raids

The post title is obviously stupid, right?

Mazda Demios are pretty common in ram-raids but:

1. Ram raids have started coming down off their peak;
2. People can use all kinds of cars for ram-raids;
3. Most Mazda Demios are not used in ram-raids. Other people drive them too.

Now consider the National Party's proposed "Let's ban disposable vapes and vapes that use non-refillable pods or tanks to put an end to youth vaping" policy.

Disposable vapes are pretty commonly used by youths who vape - more than tanks or pods. But:

1. Youth vaping has stopped increasing (and came down a bit in the most recent Year 10 survey);
2. Youths can use all kinds of devices, not just disposables and non-refillable pods and tanks;
3. Adults use these too. Adults who used them to quit smoking, and who were attracted by the convenience and cost of non-refillable systems. 

The proposed ban is so stupid. 

In late August, I had a column over in the Post on it [ungated here]. I noted the very obvious problems with the proposed ban. The vape systems that are hardest to use would be the only ones left on the market, which will screw things up for adult vapers who can't handle those systems while making it easier for screw-ups to happen. 

The Government will ban vaping products that are more affordable and that are easier to use – for everyone, adults included. The measures seem to be aimed at reducing youth vaping by increasing the cost of vapes. But if the Government wanted to increase the cost of vaping, excise would make more sense than banning specific types of vapes.

Vaping is a lot less risky than smoking, but there are ways for vaping to go wrong. If someone who doesn’t know what they’re doing mixes their own vape fluid in a tank-based system, they could get a higher dose than intended. Or they could experiment with adding things into the mix that should not be there. Or they could let the tank run dry, resulting in overheated coils and potentially noxious fumes.

Self-contained disposable vaping products and pod-based devices avoid those risks. They are designed to avoid hot dry heating coils. The vaping fluid is pre-mixed and cannot be adjusted. But those are the vaping devices that the Government is going to ban.

Let’s say that again. The Government is proposing to ban the safest devices while leaving the potentially riskier ones on the market, and says it is doing this because it wants to protect kids.

The Ministry hadn't yet put up the RIS on the ban. It was fun to read through it - they'd written it before my column, but hadn't released it yet. And they said much the same that I'd said: if you want to target cost, excise or minimum pricing make more sense but there are tradeoffs with that. Banning pods and single-use tanks goes beyond what's needed and will have adverse consequences for adult vapers. 

What did the Ministry say? 

1. Daily vaping has been stable for three years but is high in international perspective;
2. Youths who vape most frequently choose disposables: twice as common as pods, three times as common as tanks)
3. "There is risk that reducing youth access to vapes will lead to higher youth smoking rates"
4. "Actions to reduce youth vaping need to be targeted towards young people and minimise any barriers on adults wanting to access vapes to quit smoking"
5. "While banning disposables may prevent further young people taking up vaping, it may not stop vaping in those cohorts who are already doing it regularly."
6. Existing rules that came into effect end-December ban disposables without removable batteries; this removes most traditional disposables from the market already.
7. Broadening the ban on disposables won't be a material barrier to adults; three quarters of adults use pods and tanks.
8. Cabinet's preferred broad ban brings safety concerns because you're forcing everyone to refill tanks. 
9. "There is also the potential risk that a more comprehensive ban incentivises an illicit market. Whilst not directly comparable, tighter regulation in Australia has seen the rise of a significant illicit market with 87% of Australians who vape reporting sourcing vapes illegally."
10. "accessibility of use for adults who smoke and wish to vape to quit smoking would also be impacted."
11. If the government wants to increase the cost of vapes, excise and/or minimum prices make more sense but have trade-offs when thinking about encouraging adults to shift away from smoked tobacco.

The Ministry preferred the much narrower ban. 

And it's great that they pointed to the risk of illicit market access under a broader ban. Otago's public health people like to pretend that those worries are invented by industry. 

I went through the Ministry's RIS over at Newsroom this week. This will wind up biting National unless they fix it at Select Committee:

And here is where we shift from the measures just being poor policy to also being a political mistake.

Under the previous Labour government, then-health minister Ayesha Verrall had legislated a ban on cigarettes that contain any appreciable amount of nicotine, an annual increase in the age limit for smoking, and reductions in the number of retail outlets allowed to sell cigarettes.

Measures from that legislation had not come into effect by the time of last year’s election. And, to some surprise, the incoming Government’s coalition agreements reversed that legislation while committing the Government to considering a broader range of reduced-harm alternatives to smoking.

Labour strongly opposed the Government’s reversal of its legislation, claiming its legislation was needed to continue the path to Smokefree 2025.

Many ex-smokers use the vaping systems that National is due to ban. Smoking rates could well be increasing again in the lead-up to the 2026 election. If smoking rates are on the rise, Labour will have its choice of rod with which to beat National. It could point to the vaping rules, or to the coalition’s reversal of Verrall’s legislation, or both.

The legislation may provide the Government with a temporary reprieve from parents and teachers worried about youth vaping. But the Ministry of Health’s Regulatory Impact Statement suggests the ban is far broader than is really necessary. If the government does not reconsider its options through the select committee process, it may yet find that bad policy becomes bad politics.

Labour's been curiously silent on this one. 

In other instances in which National set tobacco/nicotine policy that MoH disagreed with, Labour and Radio NZ have been sure it's because National/NZ First are corrupt. Haven't heard from them yet on this one - probably because they're following Napolean's warnings against interfering when an enemy is making a mistake.