Supermarkets and the price of beef

Danyl McLaughlan's piece in The Listener ($) on NZ grocery retail is fun. 

There's a fair bit potentially packed into 'non-monopolistic prices' here.

Northelia was Edwards’ proposal to the Commerce Commission during its 2020-21 market study. It represented an unnamed group of investors with capital in excess of $1 billion who would establish a third entrant into the New Zealand grocery market on condition the commission break up the existing chains, making up to 175 supermarkets available for purchase at non-monopolistic prices. Crucially, it would also compel access to an existing chain’s distribution system.

There's a different bit I wanted to pick up on though. 

Here's Danyl:

Instead, Willis strengthened the grocery supply code and the wholesale access regime. None of the major international chains engaged with the government’s request for a proposal. Consumer price index data for 2025 showed fruit increasing in price by 10%, vegetables by 4.9% and meat by 8.6%.

Remember that meat trades internationally. We export a fair bit to the US. NZ producers will sell to the highest bidder - the ship ready to go to the US, the local butcher, or the supermarket. 

Here's what's happened to the price of ground beef in the US over the past year. 

US ground beef prices are up by more than 20% for 2025. It'd be surprising if NZ prices didn't go up as well. It's been part of a longer-term increase in US beef prices. 

The graph below sets 1 Jan 2020 at 100 for both CPI and ground beef prices. They're up about 76% over that period; CPI's up about 24%. 

I suppose folks could blame Woolworths and Foodstuffs for the run-up in US ground beef prices, and the National-led coalition too, but it seems more likely that high export prices pull up NZ domestic prices across the board. 

Or maybe Trump will order a break up of NZ supermarkets to help US grocery prices. Who knows.