Pachauri likely to lose job [updated]

Current prices at iPredict suggest Pachauri likely to lose his job as head of IPCC before May. A contract paying $1 in that event is now trading at $0.75: well up from last week's trading around the $0.25 mark. I'm selling at these prices, but have standing bids in around $0.67. I'd last week reckoned a fair price around $0.45 and was buying reasonably heavily between $0.20 and $0.45 (though, alas, liquidity constrained when prices were low!).

Relevant Pachauri news:

• UK Times: UN IPCC's Pachauri was told of false glacier claims before Copenhagen! -- 'But he waited two months to correct it'
• Pachauri accused of 'a direct lie'
• IPCC's Pachauri 'falls out of favor in home country' as pressure mounts for him to step down -- Actions called 'unscientific and uncalled for...his standing among scientists has fallen'

Update: Ok, cancelling the short. It's not a Pachauri sex tape, but it's the next best thing...he's written a smutty novel about the erotic adventures of a high ranking Indian global warming scientist. Sadly, this raises my estimate of the likelihood of his losing his job by more than the lying. If all else were quiet in his world, folks might just snicker a bit. But combined with everything else....

In other news, Roger Beattie's delayed debate with DoC should broadcast tonight on Close Up.