Next time lobbyist Carrick Graham sends out cryptic tweets, expect iPredict to move a bit faster.
3 PM Monday afternoon, he tweeted "Senior Labour MP in trouble..."
WhaleOil picked up on it shortly thereafter: "@CarrickGraham Looks like Judith T will be an MP again".
iPredict has a contract paying $1 if Judith Tizard enters Parliament this term. That happens if any Labour MP drops out as she's next on the list. The contract had been trading around $0.14. No movement on the contract until Tuesday evening when it jumped first to $0.20, then to $0.40, then as high as $0.70 late Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning. The price jump made @BKDrinkwater say "Whoa". In the iPredict forums, @Peteremcc pretended to inside knowledge but revealed nothing.
The price has since dropped again.
Mid-Wednesday morning it was revealed that Labour MP Darren Hughes is under police investigation for an incident involving a young complainant; Labour leader Phil Goff is backing him pending the outcome of the investigation. If Hughes leaves Parliament, Tizard enters.
I'm a bit surprised on this one. Labour knew about the complaint a couple weeks ago, but nobody from Labour came in to trade in anticipation of the complaint's being made public. Sure, they may all well have expected the complaint was without foundation, but I would have expected some there to expect that the story's release would have led to a price jump.
Carrick's going to have to get an iPredict account for the next time he gets advance word of a story like this. Buy on the rumour, sell on the news....