The Mainland Press asked me to comment on the main parties' economic policies a couple of weeks back; my write-up's now out. It doesn't catch anything that came up in the week and a half between my writing the piece and its publication, but there hasn't been a whole lot that I'd have added in hindsight either. Enjoy! And thanks to @bebe33 for the pointer that it's now out.
iPredict has us on track for another National government - 93% likely at current prices. Roughly even odds ACT returns to Parliament. A contract paying out at a dollar if National takes a majority of votes is running at around $0.43, but the contract pays out on total votes cast, not on the final composition of Parliament. If we're likely to see 6.5 to 9 percent of the total vote going to parties that fail to enter Parliament, National trading on 48% of the total ballot means a straight National majority government barring substantial overhang.
As I understand electoral law, I'm not permitted to blog on things on election day if the blogging could affect the outcome of the vote, though things I post on Friday can stay up through Saturday. It is utterly infeasible for me to globally suspend comments on all posts via Blogger for Saturday only; please don't get me in trouble.
Worse, the stupid election law means no trading on iPredict from midnight Friday night through to 7PM Saturday. I really really really have to make sure I kill all my standing orders there late Friday night lest I be cleaned out when trading resumes Saturday.