Thursday 18 October 2012

Bad predictions

The Econ Department Nobel Pool for 2012, organised by Seamus, failed abysmally. Each member of the Department was allowed to pick three prizes. None of us picked Roth. Here are the entries:

Me:
  1. Tullock-Krueger;
  2. Shiller (I expected with Fama, but didn't note);
  3. Tirole
Other sets of guesses:
  • Respondent K:
    1. Fama-French
    2. Tirole
    3. Feldstein-Poterba
  • Respondent J:
    1. Plott
    2. Gene Grossman
    3. Ted Bergstrom
  • Respondent R:
    1. Tirole-Holmstrom
    2. Romer-Barro
    3. Baumol
  • Respondent G., from the Finance section:
    1. Fama
    2. Fama
    3. Fama
  • Respondent S.
    1. Weitzman
    2. Deaton
    3. Tirole
  • Respondent P.
    1. Hart
    2. Posner
    3. Krueger
  • Respondent A.
    1. Gene Grossman
    2. John Cochrane
    3. Michael Grossman
  • Respondent M.
    1. Tirole-Dixit
    2. Berry-Pakes
  • Update: I forgot Respondent SHi
    1. Bhagwati
    2. Easterly
    3. Shiller
No wisdom of crowds here.

1 comment:

  1. > No wisdom of crowds here.

    In the department or the committee?

    ReplyDelete