Final arbitrage position statement

InTrade will not allow me to deposit more than $5000 in a 30-day window, so I can't arbitrage any longer. My current positions:

• 739 shares on Obama at InTrade bought at USD$6.74 per share on average. 
• If Obama wins, I net USD$2389 less credit card exchange rate losses two ways.
• If Romney wins, I lose USD $5001 and credit card exchange rate losses one way.
• AUD$1000 on Romney at BetFair at 4.4.
• If Obama wins, I lose USD$1053 and credit card exchange rate losses one way.
• If Romney wins, I net USD$3335 less credit card exchange rate losses two ways.
• 2959 shares on Romney (mix long Romney short Obama) at iPredict, average price NZD$0.2297.
• If Obama wins, I lose USD$563
• If Romney wins, I gain USD$1849

On net, then, if Obama wins, I'm up $773. If Romney wins, I'm up $183. Less credit card exchange rate fees and realised currency risk in both cases. I expect Obama to win, so I don't mind having an unbalanced position. I'm currently cheering only for that the election be decisive and not go into endless recounts or Supreme Court challenges that push the payout until after my credit card comes due. If you're a voter in a swing state, I strongly encourage you to go with whatever everybody else seems to be doing.

I'd like to resist the temptation to play at range trading on iPredict during the day so I can get a clean final outcome, but I doubt I'll be able to.

Previously: Barriers to Arbitrage (why most folks may not be doing this); Documenting the Arbitrage.

In other news, it's fun to compare these two Twitter searches [ht @LyndonHood]:

• "if Obama wins New Zealand": about 19 people claiming they'd come here if Obama wins.
• "if Romney wins New Zealand": about 14 people claiming they'd come here if Romney wins.

In both states of the world, it's optimal to move to New Zealand. Tiebout gives you the only vote where you're guaranteed to win.