Wednesday 3 February 2010

Hedging at iPredict

The deposit limits (no more than $1000 every six months) make iPredict pretty limited as a financial hedging tool. But, it can be an emotional hedging tool. Hoisted from the comments over at Kiwiblog:
george (336) Says:
February 3rd, 2010 at 10:53 am
ipredict should be used to hedge one’s emotions. You bet [edited: GO LONG] on Labour so that if Labour wins an election you at least get some money to compensate for the horror that involved. So, on this issue, it is best to invest in Pachauri staying.
I'm emotion-neutral, so I'm happy to provide this kind of insurance product. But surely, if the critics are right, then Pachauri does the IPCC more harm than good by staying. So hedging skeptics ought be long on Pachauri resigning and hedging warmists ought be short. If Pachauri does more harm than good.

On the Pachauri contracts: I've cleared much of my long position, with standing out-of-the-money bids around $0.50 and both in and out of money shorts upwards from $0.61. Having a flip through the IPCC voting rules, I see no easy mechanism for impeachment: the best they have is a note that the Vice Chair takes over if the Chair resigns or is otherwise unable to complete his duties. I also note that one of Pachauri's insider critics has recanted. I put it even odds at present.

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