Sunday 12 September 2010

It would take an earthquake...

It turns out that the talk of Mayoral prospect and Member of Parliament Jim Anderton having quipped that it would take an earthquake for him to lose the election was apocryphal.

But the trading data doesn't lie.

The Christchurch Press also picked up the price move.

I've been on the wrong side of every turn on this contract. Started out long on Parker as I couldn't imagine that an incumbent with no particular problems should be sitting only at 30 cents against an almost-retired MP. I reversed out of that position when Parker seemed to be completely screwing up at every turn in the campaign, with absolutely nothing on the radar that seemed likely to help him. Then the earthquake hit, 4:35 am Saturday 4 September. Folks started buying Parker and shorting Anderton around 9 AM. My internet access was good enough for tweeting, but not good enough for trading. And, we were a bit busy with other things.

Since the quake, Parker's been able to do no wrong and Anderton's disappeared back to Parliament except to muse about whether or not he should resign as MP should he win the mayoralty race.

I swear he's doing it just to kill my portfolio.

I wonder whether Parker's not a bit over-bought - the election is still a month away. The city's response in the immediate aftermath has been great; whether they can continue to make everybody happy for another month...

The iPredict forums have been gold.

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