Thursday 28 July 2011

Tomorrow's election results, today

Matt Burgess and the iPredict team today launched, which provides live projections of Parliament's composition based on current trading prices over at iPredict.

They're currently forecasting 59 seats for National in a 122-seat Parliament. National would have its choice of ACT with 6 seats, United Future with 3 seats, or the Maori Party with 3 seats as coalition partners.

The Parliamentary Projections are largely powered by prices in the Vote Share market, but with accounting for prices in a few critical seat markets. So ACT's 6 seats would drop to zero if ACT were not to get Epsom; NZ First's 5% expected vote share would likely start turning into seats if the price on the Peters contract, discussed here, were to pass the 50% mark.

The whole initiative is sponsored by Exceltium (Matthew Hooton) and Scoop.

Awesome work guys!

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