Thursday 24 November 2011

Election roundup

The Mainland Press asked me to comment on the main parties' economic policies a couple of weeks back; my write-up's now out. It doesn't catch anything that came up in the week and a half between my writing the piece and its publication, but there hasn't been a whole lot that I'd have added in hindsight either. Enjoy! And thanks to @bebe33 for the pointer that it's now out.

iPredict has us on track for another National government - 93% likely at current prices. Roughly even odds ACT returns to Parliament. A contract paying out at a dollar if National takes a majority of votes is running at around $0.43, but the contract pays out on total votes cast, not on the final composition of Parliament. If we're likely to see 6.5 to 9 percent of the total vote going to parties that fail to enter Parliament, National trading on 48% of the total ballot means a straight National majority government barring substantial overhang.

As I understand electoral law, I'm not permitted to blog on things on election day if the blogging could affect the outcome of the vote, though things I post on Friday can stay up through Saturday. It is utterly infeasible for me to globally suspend comments on all posts via Blogger for Saturday only; please don't get me in trouble.

Worse, the stupid election law means no trading on iPredict from midnight Friday night through to 7PM Saturday. I really really really have to make sure I kill all my standing orders there late Friday night lest I be cleaned out when trading resumes Saturday.

1 comment:

  1. With all the coverage you are getting for Canterbury you deserve to get your immunity idol directly from Rod Carr. In case he doesn't give you one, the add to the left of your piece looks promising ;-)