Monday 7 November 2011

Prediction Market Television

iPredict has put together a spectacular set of panel discussions that air on Stratos in prime time. Bomber Bradbury hosts the programme, which features panelists including sitting Members of Parliament who discuss changes in their likelihood of winning re-election.

This is fantastic stuff; kudos to all involved.

iPredict has all the episodes up on YouTube.

Here's the most recent one, featuring National M.P. Nikki Kaye and commentator Matthew Hooton. Hooton also discusses the odd trading episode of last week.


Prior episodes include Green M.P. Gareth Hughes and Labour M.P. Jacinda Ardern.

The market's still calling the election for National: PM.2011.National is trading around the 90% mark. Full disclosure: I'm massively long on National and running straddles at +/- a couple points either side of 90; I also have a big bid in on Vote.2011.Nat at $0.465 (and sell orders at 0.495).

I love that we're now getting punditry informed by market odds. Even better would be if the commentators disclosed the trades they were making consequent to their analysis rather than saying which way they would trade were they to trade!

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