Monday, 1 December 2025

The state of the books

StatsNZ has put up its year-end accounts for the government, split out across functional areas. 

Their data goes back to 2009 in the main table; I'm sure earlier data's available somewhere in Infoshare.

But sticking with the Excel sheet they've provided, we can lob in June-year population statistics and June quarter consumer price index values to get per capita real measures on operating expenditures net of finance cost and on spend in different functional areas. 

Here's per capita real central government operating expenditure net of interest expenses. Netting out interest expenditures is helpful if you want a handle on core government operating expenditure. Government can decide to take on less debt; it cannot decide to stop making its interest payments. 



You may have heard a lot of stories about austerity. Consider that both the government and the opposition may want to convey the impression that it has happened, despite it very much not having happened. 

Throughout the 2010s (barring #eqnz), per capita real operating expenditure net of interest expenses ranged from $17,143 to $18,653 - with 2019's jump to $18,653 being well out of line with the prior track. Labour substantially increased spending under its wellbeing focus - as was its prerogative. 

Per capita real operating expenditure net of finance cost has been above $21,000 since then; the provisional figure for 2025 is $21,648.

Here's the breakdown by functional categories. Let's start with the bigger-ticket items. 

The largest-spend category here by far is social protection: benefits and superannuation. 



Spending on those has risen over the period and is now close to the peak that they hit during the GFC and Christchurch Earthquake. There was always going to be a slow rise in these with an aging population in the absence of reform to NZ Superannuation. 

Health is next. It peaked during Covid. Vaccines cost money. Again, an aging population will get you an increasing track on this one - but we were averaging about $3700 per capita before Covid and we're now around $4600. 



Education had a large Covid spike, then retrenchment to a new level a bit above the old per capita level. 



But remember that this is per capita, not per capita under the age of 25. And the proportion of under-25s has been dropping at the same time as the proportion of over-65s has been increasing. 

Any giant shedding of government staff will show up in General Public Services.


The austerity really stands out in this picture. Can't you see it too? 

'Economic affairs' spiked with the wage subsidy scheme but has maintained a substantial ratchet. 


The category's spend, pre-Covid, peaked in 2019 at just over $1,200 per capita. Now it's just over $1,700 per capita. 

Public order and safety has plateaued just over $1,200 per capita. The increase began under the Ardern government. National has maintained their increase in resourcing to police. 



Housing and Community Amenities jumped from close to nil to just over $400 per capita under the prior Labour government, and has stayed there under National.



Defence has been more frugal - but remember that this is just operating expenditures, not capital expenditures. That's around $400 per capita throughout. Minor decline in real per capita operational expenditures since 2009. 


Recreation, culture, and religion rose and has retrenched somewhat. I wonder what the heck is in the 'religion' category. But the apparently arts and culture hating National-led coalition is spending more in this category, in per capita real dollars, than Ardern ever did pre-Covid. 


Environmental protection has been maintained at a slightly higher level than pre-Covid. Under the Key government environmental protection was around $160 per capita; pre-Covid Ardern had it around $175. Just look at that slash and burn from the environment-haters. It's right there. Can't you see it? That little downward tick in 2025?



We continue to be in substantial structural deficit. 

Increasing revenue to match spending is always an option, but one that would entrench the increased spending in just about every category since Covid - and still leave a demographic problem to be dealt with as superannuation entitlements keep rising along with health spending. 

And I've not included the costs of financing an increasing government debt. 

Wednesday, 26 November 2025

Alas, it was not to be

It would have been just one bad part of an overarching very silly policy. Exempting it from the policy regime I suppose makes the policy a bit more tractable. But it also makes it a lot less potentially funny.

New Zealand's government supports the creation of cultural content by paying for it through various grants. TV stations and streaming services can then run it, or not, as they want. 

Canada does things the dumber way. I'm sure they also have direct subsidies. But they also have Canadian Content regulations that prescribe the proportion of each day's broadcasting that must be Canadian content.

It was bad enough in the linear TV era. The ridiculousness of it all had the excellent SCTV pad out the extra couple of minutes of the Canadian version of the show (fewer ads than on the US side) with a very explicitly Canadian segment: the most over-the-top CanCon possible. Bob and Dough MacKenzie - the hosers.

The first segment including them had a lengthy scroll after the segment explaining how the segment meets official Canadian guidelines for what counts as Canadian content and was almost as funny as the MacKenzie brothers.

That was fifty years ago now - or thereabouts.

Times change. 

A decade ago, Canada decided that its regulatory reach extended to the entire internet if the internet could be viewed from Canada. If you wanted to stream to Canada, you'd have to meet CanCon rules. Quite how to make that work when people choose what they want to watch and plenty of potential platforms might not really care what Canada things about anything - well, they've been taking a while figuring out how to apply the principles. 

And they've finally decided that, despite or perhaps because of the uniquely Canadian content that might be created, to great hilarity, to meet the rules, the CanCon rules will not apply to pornography streamed in Canada

This has long been one of the more onerous demands of the CRTC, given the relative dearth of erotic media that would meet their terms as “Canadian content.”

Article content

Under the CRTC’s definition of the term, it’s not enough to have a Canadian performer or a Canadian setting.

Article content

Rather, it’s determined via an elaborate “points” system that, among other things, requires the producer and at least one of the lead performers to be able to prove Canadian citizenship.

Article content

At least three quarters of the financing must also come from “Canadians or Canadian companies.”

Article content

In extreme cases, this means that a video of a Canadian couple having sex in Canada and directed by another Canadian would not qualify as Canadian content if only 74 per cent of the financing was provably Canadian.

Whenever one despairs about policy in New Zealand, Canada and the UK provide superb reminders that the rest of the world generally remains even worse. 

Meanwhile, Australia's looking to impose Australian-content mandates on streaming services

The federal government has put laws requiring streaming services to produce Australian content back on the table after postponing them due to concerns about how they would interact with Australia's trade agreement with the United States.

The government has confirmed it will introduce legislation this week to mandate that any streaming services with more than 1 million Australian subscribers must produce Australian drama, children's, documentary, arts or educational programs.

I wonder whether there are enough subscribers to any single platform for Australia to run into Canada's difficulties here. It would be very funny if there were. 

Thursday, 20 November 2025

Seamus and I were wrong

Back in 2012, Seamus Hogan and I were ...mildly sceptical... of proposals to build a giant convention centre in Christchurch.

Seamus wrote:

The convention centre: Eric has written on this, but I can't resist adding my voice. This is why the stadium doesn't upset me so much. The stupidity pales into insignificance compared to the silliness of building a purpose built facility from scratch that is able to host up to three conferences simultaneously. (Aside: from my limited experience with organising conferences, if you have choice over location and date, you choose somewhere where you will be the only conference operating at the time.) The conference centre should be small close to hotels and the performing arts centre so that larger affairs could spill out to those areas.

The bit I'd written on it, in a post titled "What am I missing?", was after one of our regular lunchtime chats in the econ department lunch room. So it owes a fair bit to that discussion with Seamus: 

The Press reports that the Christchurch Convention Centre was insured for $30m but that like-for-like replacement would cost $60m. Whatever external benefits come from holding conferences in town are mostly internalised by the local hotel and restaurant industry; solutions letting the convention centre build internalize those external benefits helps ensure an efficiently sized convention centre. Here's one way of doing it, conditional on Council wanting a convention centre.

  1. Council buys options on a few appropriate sites around town.
  2. Council gets in touch with the big hotels to tell them that Council's going to build a much smaller convention centre for $30 million, but that they want to site it so it can be linked by skywalks* to adjacent blocks if the hotels want to be linked to it. If the hospitality industry really wants a bigger convention centre, they can come back with a proposal where the hotels fund an expanded facility. But even with a smaller convention centre, they can still host big conventions by holding plenary sessions in the big convention centre facilities and having breakout sessions in the different connected hotels' conference rooms. 
  3. Figure out the set of sites on which you have options that best suits the set of hotel partners. The hotels buy the options off Council for their parts of the build.
  4. Exercise the options and get on with it. Make sure there's room on the site to put a few restaurants; put restaurant provision up to competitive bidding so that any rents from conventioneers get capitalized into the purchase price and help fund the place, internalizing the external benefit. 

Now I know what I was missing: the true chutzpah of Christchurch. 

Christchurch, I am in awe. 

We were totally right that the thing would be a white elephant that couldn't cover its costs. We were worried about them spending $60m on a new one; the one they got cost $475 million and lost $3.4 million last year. Its visitor numbers hare dropping too. 

But just look at this.

The ownership question is more tangled than it first appears.

An early, “in principle” version of the 2019 Global Settlement between Christchurch City Council and the Crown talked about the council being best placed to own Te Pae and provide strategic direction for the city’s venues.

But that language did not survive into the final agreement signed later that year.

So the city was cagey about being willing to take ownership while making sure that it didn't sign anything saying that it would. 

Good move that. Then:

The Te Pae clause now simply records that the convention centre would be delivered, and that “the parties may continue to engage on future ownership of Te Pae as appropriate”.

The Christchurch City Council said it had already looked hard at taking the asset on, and decided against it.

After due diligence the council decided not to pursue ownership,” head of facilities and property Bruce Rendall said.

Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop, one of the shareholding ministers in CID, said the Government was “open to proposals for Christchurch City Council ownership of Te Pae in the future”.

Emphasis added. I'm reminded of Bart Simpson announcing that he would resign, undefeated, from the world of video boxing. 

So. Option for the Crown at this point would be to threaten to mothball the thing rather than continue to subsidise it. I don't think they can force Council to own it. 

And Christchurch always has the option to offer to agree to take on ownership in exchange for concessions on other margins where central and local government negotiate about things. 

Even evil genius needs recognition. 

As a bit of fun, I asked my advisor to imagine it were a consultancy like Cameron Partners asked to prepare a report on the likely sale value of the thing if it were offered to market. 

As a going concern without ongoing subsidy, the Crown could expect to have to pay someone about $90 million to take it, assuming that the venue could be scrapped in 30 years for its land value. 

If instead the owner could demolish and put up something else instead (while paying break fees with the operator), the site might be worth $55 million.

Both $-90 million and $55 million are considerably less than the $352m asserted book value of the building, which is considerably less than the $475m build cost. 

A huge up-front and ongoing waste of course. But consider the evil genius here too. That's worth something



The conversation with my advisor is here, for those keen on that sort of thing. The opening snippet:

In straight commercial terms, Te Pae as a convention centre is not worth anything like its $360m book value to a private buyer. On realistic assumptions:

  • Highest bid is likely to come from a “scrap + redevelopment” buyer, not a buyer keeping it as a convention centre.

  • A plausible order‑of‑magnitude sale price for the site in that scenario is around NZ$50–70m net of demolition and contract break‑costs.

  • As a going concern with no ongoing subsidy, the facility’s value to a private buyer is zero or negative (you’d effectively need to pay someone to take it).

  • To get a positive price for Te Pae as a going concern, you’re looking at an ongoing subsidy of roughly NZ$8–10m per year over decades, assuming current trading patterns.

Thursday, 23 October 2025

Speech-gating and privacy tradeoffs

A friend asked about my zealotry on age-gating social media and why internet anonymity/pseudonymity should be protected. 

I sent this through by email, figured I'd share it here too, very lightly edited. 

I agree that people are more likely to be jerks when anonymous. 

Potential for anonymity is simultaneously important protection when society or governments are too censorious, or could become so, or when someone in one country worries about consequences for family who live in a censorious country. 

If Twitter had a magic tech that could undo VPNs and put a note under each tweet specifying the real country of origin of any tweet, that wouldn’t bother me any. Or if another social network decided to only allow real name accounts, and people wanted to chat there, that’s perfectly fine with me too. 

Government requirements on these platforms seem like a different matter entirely.

The UK’s rules require that every site whose content could possibly be viewed as harmful to children now require adults to prove that they are not children. One very predictable consequence: Discord was hacked, and 70,000 had their government-issued IDs stolen

But even without hacks, requirements to provide your ID if you want to look at sensitive content can chill speech and access to information. “Oh, you want to read that article about the STD you think you might have? Just show us your ID. And trust that we won’t tell anybody what you were looking at.” Or, “Oh, I see you’re interested in a very niche form of pornography. Please give me your ID.” “Oh, I see you’re interested in academic journal articles about the heritability of different traits. Papers please.” 

Freedom of speech includes the freedom to read. I would consider it a violation of freedom of speech if a librarian came up and demanded to take a record of my ID if I were minding my own business and peacefully reading subversive books. 

Did any of the proponents of the UK legislation think that ‘just protecting children’ would mean adults would have to give Wikipedia their ID to read some of their articles, or to every dodgy porn site? Probably not. They’re not good at thinking about tech or consequences or how companies protect themselves against substantial potential liability. 

But that’s where the UK now is. As consequence, VPN downloads have massively increased in the UK so people can pretend they’re not in the UK. And the UK government is investigating whether it’s possible to ban VPNs. 

And as consequence, I’ve gotten a multi-year subscription to a good VPN, because the obvious way for governments to ban VPNs is to ban domestically issued credit cards from processing payments to them. And New Zealand seems determined to be every bit as stupid as the UK. I understand that Select Committee has asked for advice about the feasibility of banning VPNs as part of their inquiry into ‘just protecting the children’. Great stuff. 

Australia’s version will require social media platforms to keep under-16s from having accounts. There are triaging efforts they can take, but a pile of users who are over the age limit will wind up having to prove that they are over the age limit. 

The system can then either err on the side of letting youths on accidentally (and suffer penalties for doing so), impose substantial burdens on adult users to avoid letting youths on accidentally (frequent age re-verification to make sure that a youth hasn’t faked being over the age limit with the help of a confederate), or end the potential for anonymous/pseudonymous accounts by requiring real ID. 

If I were a Chinese student studying in Australia and had set up a pseudonymous Twitter account for fear that my family in China would be punished for what I might say in Australia – and to maintain the option to go back to China if I wanted to – I would end my account rather than provide ID. Because IDs can be hacked, and the Chinese government is good at that. Sure, they could probably figure out who owned an account if they tried really hard absent that. But having a giant database that just hands over all the IDs you need to check? Risky. 

There are ways of doing it that are privacy preserving. But it would be very easy for a fifteen year old, with the cooperation of a seventeen year old friend, to get an account under those methods. And when that becomes obvious, those for whom potential harms to children trump everything else in the world will call it a ‘loophole’, demand the loophole be closed, and the potential for pseudonymity disappears. 

The same problem applies to what I’d put up as potential least-bad solution in my submission on this stuff. Government could require that platforms age-restrict at the app-store level such that parental authorisation is required through Family Link or the Apple equivalent. 

It would be far from foolproof: not everyone has an age in their phone account (Google or Apple); people could buy cheap phones and not disclose true age. And it would have some harms too: the State would be enforcing the right of a Gloriavale mum to block her son from important aspects of contact with the outside world. Which is a bit odd when a 15 year old can get an abortion without parental notification or consent; doctors are forbidden from telling the parents if the child so-requests. We have very odd and inconsistent rules about what things kids can and cannot do without parental consent. 

My solution would also have obvious holes. So I urged that, if parliament picked up that option, it do so very deliberately with recognition of that lots of kids would work around the rule and that that was the least bad alternative – that nobody frame it as being other than very second-best, and that nobody pretend afterwards that kids getting around it was a reason to revise the rules. 

It still sucks though and is far more risky than I’m comfortable with. 

I guess one bottom line: shouldn't we let the rest of the world have a few attempts at this before jumping into anything we might regret? 

Other bits of context:

The Ring: discount rates edition

Locked at the bottom of a dark well is a beautiful-looking idea. 

"Set discount rates to very low levels when thinking about intergenerational issues."

It is a beautiful looking idea. We don't discount utilities. Future people matter. Conventional discount rates mean that far-off benefits or costs count for next to nil. Don't we care about future people?

Let the beautiful idea out of the well. 

Surely it will be used only for very long-term lovely environmental projects with century-long returns. 

Who locked it in the well anyway? It had to have been bad people for bad reasons.

Let the beautiful idea out of the well. Free it!


A couple of decades ago, Treasury was the place that warned about public choice considerations. About how this sort of thing might be a bad idea, and the reasons it would be a bad idea, and the safeguards that might be needed if you wanted to let the thing out of the well. 

Lately, Treasury's been drinking from the well instead. 

I was pretty sceptical of the initiative, figuring that the proposed dual discount regime would lead to shenanigans. 

An earlier version of this stuff had a 5% discount rate for social investment projects. Tauranga's business case for the Te Manawataki o Te Papa civic redevelopment consequently claimed that the thing was a social investment project that could get the 5% discount rate. Of course this stuff was going to encourage shenanigans. 


And again without and decent definitions or guardrails - just hopeful suggestions about considerations that might affect whether something is commercial or non-commercial. Or any explanation of what enforces mandatory sensitivity tests in a world where zero other Ministries or Agencies respect Treasury as enforcer on anything any longer. 

Updating the discounting regime to use SRTP as the default for proposals with mainly non-commercial costs and benefits makes the CBA settings more technically robust, especially in a policy environment where there is increasing focus on long-term impacts of policy. 
They let it out of the well. 

And it's going about as well as expected.

NZTA in January decided that "most transport activities undertaken by the public sector" are non-commercial. And, in fairness, there's no commercial case for most stuff NZTA now does. So it's 'non-commercial' in that sense. 


It's terrible of course. 

But there's a poetry to it. 

Folks wanted to let her out of the well to justify environmental projects. 

And instead we get more motorways.


Treasury is a fallen place that has forgotten the faces of its fathers. 

Thursday, 2 October 2025

Gating speech

Being able to speak online freely, under a pseudonym, is an important backstop for freedom of speech.

If government turns repressive, or bans some kinds of speech, or locks you out of some kinds of employment for having used the wrong words, at least you can online under a pseudonym. 

Well, unless you're only allowed online after logging into a government app. Then it's game over. 

Nevertheless, some in Wellington are itching to follow Australia’s lead. 

While legislation is in its early stages in Parliament with Catherine Wedd’s Member’s Bill, Education Minister Erica Stanford is leading cross-agency work to explore viable legislative options and practical implementation.  

The Prime Minister has publicly supported moving ahead.  

Paul James, the Government chief digital officer, told me on The Business of Tech podcast last week that the digital identity verification system underpinning the upcoming all-of-government app and digital wallet could offer the age verification needed to support a ban – if the Government seeks to enforce one.

I've suggested before that a trilemma applies here, or something like one. Online age gating requires adults to prove that they're not kids. 

And that means at least one of three problems.  

A system could be easily worked around by kids.

It could be very cumbersome for those over the age limit.

Or it could be the end of online pseudonymity and privacy.

Suppose that the government-app runs a zero knowledge proof solution. You log into the app. It generates a key verifying that the person logged into the app is over some age. You use that key with your favourite social media app. It verifies the key's authenticity anonymously, so the app doesn't know which platform is checking. And you're set - privacy maintained. 

But that's easily worked around if a sixteen year old logs into the government app on his fifteen-year-old friend's phone. 

And enough kids doing that means the Before 16 lobby group will characterise it as a loophole that must be closed. And then the verification is no longer done through a ZKP, ending online privacy, or we have to do daily re-verification to impose a differential cost on under-16s, making things cumbersome for other users. 

I do not like where this is heading. 

Saturday, 27 September 2025

Failure can be overdetermined

Last week, on The Platform, Auckland Uni's Prof of Macroeconomics blamed my shop for the government's not adopting his proposal to completely overhaul the health, welfare, and retirement system.

About a decade ago, Prof MacCulloch and Sir Roger pitched their proposal

It looked like it would take considerable effort to see whether the numbers added up. 

It also seemed like something that would be difficult to convince anyone to implement. 

We declined to weigh in. We've neither endorsed the policy nor recommended against it. 

No conspiracy is needed to explain successive governments' failure to pick up the Douglas-MacCulloch proposal. Just the usual inertia. 

The default path for a good policy proposal isn't implementation. The default path is failure. 

Most proposals fail. 

And especially for large changes that are complicated to work out and that the civil service isn't likely to support and that politicians are likely to see as risky. 

I don't think that proposal could have succeeded without enormous amounts of work being put into demonstrably ensuring the numbers stacked up, public comms on explaining it to voters, work with officials so that they'd understand what the thing involved and in hope that they wouldn't wreck it, and work with MPs so they'd see the merits. 

It probably would have required hiring an actual lobbying shop to help. 

Anyway. Bottom line here: we didn't do anything to help or hinder Robert's proposal. 

And it is weird to think that the thing could only have failed due to nefarious influence. 

That isn't how anything works. 

In the video, Robert notes having had a meeting in Bill English's office in which Matt Burgess argued against Robert's compulsory savings scheme - and suggests it's part of the Initiative's push to kill his policy. 

Matt didn't work with us until after his time working in Minister English's office. I was sad when Luxon's office later stole him from us.

Success happens through weird mixtures of luck and timing and work and skill. Failure is the norm, and is generally overdetermined.

We've been successful with a couple of our policy ideas. But we work on and pitch lots of policy ideas, and have for a long time. Failure is the norm, particularly in the short term. 

Think about the number of papers that turn up in NZ Economic Papers that have a policy recommendation and that aren't obviously crazy. What fraction of those turn into actual policy change? Half a percent? Less?

And who knows. Maybe MacCulloch and Douglas's proposal will get a re-airing with long-term superannuation costs again being salient.

But failure is the norm, even for meritorious proposals. No conspiracy is needed to explain failure. It's just what happens. 

Friday, 26 September 2025

The case for optimism

Kerry Howley has a superb piece in New York Magazine on the kids in San Francisco building the future.

Houses and motels turned into dorms for kids in their late teens through mid-20s, building everything from brain scanners through to an AI VC that evaluates funding pitches - with the AI having hired a person to be its real-world presence.
We head downstairs to a dark basement attached to a garage. A slight, long-haired man, a paid test subject solicited through Craigslist, sits before a computer screen, wearing a white cap that looks like a medieval linen coif threaded with wires. The screen flashes images — basil, a blazer, Parmesan cheese. With unsettling clarity, the computer will be able to resurrect the image from electrical signals in the subject’s brain. A subject considers a picture of jelly beans. AI offers a picture of similarly colored beads. A subject looks at a red station wagon; AI presents a red sedan. Until very recently, most people thought the data produced by EEGs, an 80-year-old technology, was noisy garbage. “They just didn’t understand the power of large language models,” Jonathan says. He is 24 years old.

Reading minds is what AI engineers mean when they talk about hard problems. Eventually, the tech will advance to interpret “evoked states.” “So we start with, you know, discrete smaller tasks like emotion, like positive, negative, maybe now ten, 20 emotions. And then we add more dimensionality so that eventually we can go into full sort of inner monologue,” a world of superior self-knowledge wherein we sift through our own memory banks rather than selectively recall events through a haze of misperception. “And,” he says, “we do it all in-house.”

Doing it all in-house looks like this: a server rack with LED-lit fans in the garage next to some exercise equipment and some bicycle helmets. Jonathan and his housemates built the rig themselves. “Just asking ChatGPT basically. You know, you can just ask and then order the parts you need and you learn and you debug.”
Kids partnering with AI to build things, no need to ask anyone's permission. 

Howley's kicker here... so very good. 
How do you make contact with the intelligence rising up from the machines around you? Do you build it a body? Do you offer it yours? It is perhaps tedious to point out that we are always operating under the shadow of destruction, deploying tools that might end us, convincing ourselves, not without reason, that if we don’t build the bomb, someone with worse intentions will. Not a single one of the AI kids had attempted to lecture me about a theory or suggested I read a paper; it was not me they were trying to program. Somewhere along the way, drawn into their swell, I had begun to think of large questions about the nature of AI as New York questions, millennial questions, distant from the center of things. Where it mattered, humans were not debating AI; they were merging with it. You order the parts you need, you learn, you debug. The kids carry on with the crisp clarity of engineers, integrating what is immediately useful, discarding or rewriting what is not. No one will ask your permission to build a world you do not understand.

It's like they're living in an 80s William Gibson novel. Working in spaces where policy and regulators can't really stop them. They don't care about policy papers. They're just building. 

Those spaces matter. Policy is so impossibly stupid. 

Here, Parliament's trying to figure out the best way of breaking the internet, with National wanting to copy Australia's insane social media age-gating bill, and Labour wanting to copy the UK's even worse version. News outlets cheer them on, having always figured that social media platforms are the enemy anyway. Both parties see it as crack cocaine for attracting pivotal female votes in the 35-55 age bracket. 

And I understand that Parliament's select committee looking into this is wondering whether it's possible to regulate VPNs. Because that's been the obvious workaround in the UK for adults who don't want to have to show ID to visit every darned website. So long as at least one country remains free, VPN to it and pretend to be from there. 

I'm cheering for the cyberpunks. They may be our best hope. 

Friday, 5 September 2025

Infrastructure roulette

In some respects it's reasonable to think about city council as being a kind of club.

Everyone who owns property in Wellington is a member of the Wellington Council club. The club levies itself to provide things that the club members want, and to cover off the cost of stuff that central government wants the club to provide that club members may or may not want. For some reason, renters were added as voting members of the club. But the debt that the club issues is ultimately backed by each of the club properties. We'll leave that messiness to one side for now.

The club finds that part of its infrastructure is in terrible shape - partially because of decisions of past club executives; partially because of a recent earthquake. 

The club can choose to rapidly replace all of that infrastructure. That would be very expensive. But it would sharply reduce the chances of very bad outcomes where infrastructure blows out.

Or it could choose to pace itself in that infrastructure replacement. That will be much less costly. So much less costly that you could, at least in principle, compensate anyone who suffers from those infrastructure blowouts if it's really the infrastructure that's to blame. 

The latter could be a very reasonable deal. Behind the veil, none of us know which of our properties is sitting on top of a water network pipe that will collapse catastrophically and destroy our home. But we'd all be bankrupted if we tried replacing all the pipes in a giant hurry - it's just impossible. So we're each better off if we all agree to take a more cost-effective path on the infrastructure refresh while compensating any club member who draws the short straw.

The alternative, with no compensation, is more like the club members agreeing to play a giant game of Russian Roulette. We don't know which of us will draw the short straw, but we hope to heck it won't be us because whoever it is will be ruined. 

It could be that the numbers don't actually work out this way. But it seems a reasonable stylised example. 

And in any particular case of blowout, you'd want to be sure that the club member hadn't contributed to the failure through their own negligence. 

But if it were clear-cut, it shouldn't be a legal battle. It should just be compensation. 

I mean, if a private company accidentally drove a bulldozer through your house and wrecked it, nobody would think it reasonable to force you to go to court to get them to compensate you. Everyone would pillory the company. There would be boycotts. Some Vic Uni quasi-academic might call for the company's chief executive to be hanged. 

Here's The Post.

Wellington City Council is refusing to pay for repairs after one of its own burst water pipes triggered two landslides that has left two families facing bills of up to $600,000.

A council-commissioned geotechnical report found the Wadestown slips were “most probably” destabilised by a failed drinking water main, owned by the Wellington City Council and maintained by council-controlled organisation Wellington Water.

The 50mm pipe ruptured on August 4, saturating the embankment, and the slips forced both households to evacuate. Residents are still living in temporary accommodation.

I Am Not A Lawyer. 

But it seems likely that the homeowners could sue council for nuisance, and win, and have costs awarded against council, but the costs won't likely be anything like what would be needed to make them whole as compared to council just providing compensation. 

Council is not a good club. 

Friday, 29 August 2025

Cementing allocations

Recall that New Zealand issues industrial allocations under the ETS to avoid inefficient carbon leakage. 

Basically, if emissions are charged here but aren't charged abroad, and production shifts from here to there because of our charges, net emissions can increase rather than decrease.

That is obviously counterproductive. So industrial emitters facing competition from places with unpriced carbon get allocations of NZU. Done right, it maintains the incentive to reduce your emissions because you can sell off your surplus NZU. But it has to be done right.

The obvious way of doing it right would be to scale industrial allocations not by the NZ plant's emissions but by emission intensity overseas. If a tonne of cement abroad has x tonnes of associated CO2 emissions, then allocate x NZU per tonne produced here. Basically. Then, if emissions intensity abroad reduces, the plant here gets fewer NZU for its own production. It maintains an incentive to reduce your own emissions intensity, and avoids getting into spots where it would actually be carbon-efficient for production to shift to plants abroad that have lower emissions than plants here.

It gets messier if the import mix has stuff from places that are cleaner than here and stuff from places that are dirtier from here. If you scale to the average emissions intensity of the import mix (weighted by proportion of imports), there's still a potential problem. Suppose average intensity overseas drops and so allocations here drop. The NZ producer reduces production. But if that hole is filled by product from the dirtier plants overseas rather than the cleaner ones, you've wound up having inefficient leakage again. 

Carbon border adjustments are an alternative. But it gets messy with trade agreements. And you have to find a way of scaling the adjustment to the emissions intensity of the product. 

New Zealand's industrial allocations seem to have a bit of a problem in cement. 

In a presentation to investors in June, Fletcher Building said a carbon border adjustment mechanism would level the playing field.

Currently, only goods produced in New Zealand face liability under the emissions trading scheme.

As an energy-intensive, trade-exposed emitter, Golden Bay Cement is eligible for an annual allocation of free carbon credits.

Data released last week shows that for last year's production, the company received 488,575 New Zealand Units, worth almost $27 million at the current spot price of about $55.

But the company says that a 2023 law change means that as the country's only cement manufacturer, it is now effectively being "rebaselined" every five years against its own emissions - which means that every time it cuts emissions it reduces the rate at which its free allocation is calculated.

"Significant investment in decarbonising local manufacturing is not viable without certainty a carbon border adjustment mechanism will be in place in the medium-term," it said in the presentation.

"Given regulatory settings, we have reviewed our capital plans for Golden Bay.

"The current investment plan retains flexibility to remain a domestic manufacturer or transition to an import model."

That just doesn't make sense.  

The government is reviewing the settings. Scaling to international emissions intensity would seem obvious. A carbon border-adjustment could also work but I have no clue whether it can be squared with trade agreements.

The annual allocation of free carbon credits to trade-exposed, energy-intensive emitters like Golden Bay Cement was last adjusted in 2023.

The company says that, in the absence of a CBAM or an equivalent mechanism, it would likely need to consider transitioning to an import model by the early 2030s.

That could result in a non-cash impairment and write-down of assets of up to about $165 million, as well as potential make-good and cash redundancy costs of up to $180 million.

For last year's production, Fletcher received 488,575 New Zealand Units, worth almost $27 million at the current spot price of about $55.

The company says it is engaging "productively" with the Government on the issue.

If cement produced abroad is more carbon intensive than cement produced here, then shifting to imports is the kind of carbon leakage that we ought to be avoiding.  

A faster track to supermarkets

Minister Willis announced measures opening retail grocery to greater competition. 

She announced a fast-track process in which retail grocery that would pass a 'does this improve competition' test could get consents that override existing district plans, access to a single building approvals authority for sites across the country, easy ability to replicate builds in multiple places, and an easier path through the overseas investment office.

Back in May, Benno at our shop put up our proposal for achieving the same outcome. Ours differed a bit. It tweaked existing fast-track processes so that a plan change would be effected that could override parts of plans with which it were otherwise inconsistent. The path would only be open to new entrants or to minor current players looking to substantial expansion. And sites would be mixed-use by default so entrants could stick apartment towers above their stores. After 5 years, the pathway would open to current incumbents. The intention here was to give new entrants a head start and a good reason to move early. And, if no entry happened, to let the incumbents go more strongly head-to-head in spots where they previously haven't. 

I think the Minister's proposed process is decent. It seems obvious that Costco will use it for speeding up its own expansion. Whether anyone else will use it is anyone's guess. The point of lowering barriers isn't to guarantee some number of entrants. It's to discover whether new entry is warranted. Maybe there just aren't super-profits here worth chasing. It's hard to tell when entry is de facto illegal. Removing the barriers lets you find out.

There's always ways this could still go wrong. But I'm optimistic. 

A few previous bits.

Friday, 22 August 2025

Banning racing

New Zealand will be banning greyhound racing

The Bill to formally end greyhound racing will be introduced to Parliament later this year. The public will be able to make submissions to the select committee as part of the process.

“It is important people get the opportunity to have their say. The decision to end greyhound racing was not one Cabinet took lightly. I acknowledge the impact that closing the industry will have on those involved.

“But globally the industry is winding down, with Tasmania recently announcing an end to greyhound racing. The bottom line is too many dogs continue to die and be seriously injured, and it is time to do the right thing,” says Mr Peters.

Ok. So the reason for banning greyhound racing is that too many dogs die and are seriously injured.

That is the basis for the ban, according to Minister Peters.

Let's go with that. 

I've asked my advisor about the rates of accident and death per racing start for greyhounds and horses.

Because we haven't banned horseracing. Indeed, we subsidise it. 

My advisor's answer, which presumably could be checked by someone with industry-knowledge:

Bottom line

Per start, a horse is more likely to die than a greyhound in racing, with the gap ranging from ~1.5× (NZ flat) to ~5× (Britain, all racing), and ~12× or more in jump racing. 

Greyhounds sustain more recorded race‑day “serious” injuries per 1,000 starts than Thoroughbreds in the datasets that exist, but those counts include categories (e.g., ≥22‑ or 43–90‑day stand‑downs) that don’t map cleanly onto how horse‑racing reports non‑fatal injuries. 

So on a first cut horses have a substantially higher risk of death per racing start than greyhounds have.

So if the government wanted to ban racing on basis of deaths, it should have started with horses.

Maybe there could be some CBA claiming a lot more benefits from horse racing per race as offset, or maybe people care more about dogs dying than about horses dying. 

But the simplest explanation here is probably the correct one.  

Friday, 15 August 2025

For a de minimus threshold for mergers

I've spent the last couple of days at the Competition Law and Policy Institute's annual workshop.

Webb-Henderson's Lucy Wright made a good case for a de minimus threshold for merger controls. Small mergers could have a safe harbour, or mergers in markets of insufficient NZ importance.

If we need to set a monetary threshold for a market of insufficient NZ importance, there's an obvious benchmark.

Same day as that session at the CLPINZ workshop, Terry Allen, former Chair of Serrato, had a piece in the Post. You'll remember Serrato. I've sometimes pointed to it as example of how the NZ Commerce Commission destroys value by chasing nth order issues when first-order issues are left by the wayside. 

Allen writes of their NZ startup:

In fact, Pioneer liked Serato software so much that when the company ran a sales process, it was the preferred bidder. Its offer not only valued the company at around $175 million, it also promised to establish a global music laboratory in Aotearoa and to grow the headcount of the chirpy little music company.

It was all going swimmingly until the Commerce Commission pulled the plug mid-2024.

The commission’s concern was that Pioneer’s parent company, AlphaTheta Corporation, already held a significant share of the global DJ hardware market.

Serato was a major player in the DJ software market. In the commission’s view, combining the two could “substantially lessen competition” in the DJ software and related hardware market — even though the New Zealand market for such products is tiny, accounting for well under 1% of Serato’s sales.

The merger review took a year and cost the commission more than $500,000 to investigate, according to the National Business Review. Legal and advisory bills for both Serato and Pioneer were well north of $1m.

The decision meant the reported $175m-plus deal was dead in the water, Serato remained independent, and the promised music lab never left the drawing board.

The Commerce Commission decision did four things. First, it cost the commission over half a million dollars and both Pioneer and Serato over a million in professional fees.

Second, it took the commission a full 12 months to make a call — effectively hitting the pause button mid-track for a year. Tacked onto pre-marketing and then running the process a second time the all-up time was more like three years. An eternity in a fast-moving tech environment.

Third, it made it jolly challenging to run the company on a daily basis while its future ownership was debated and delayed. We were lucky to have a top-flight management team keeping the home fires (and DJ decks) burning.

And fourth, it forced the company to run a whole new sales process but limit the participants to financial buyers rather than trade buyers — effectively narrowing the field to private equity.

I've heard reasonable-sounding arguments that NZ ComCom stuffed this one up in part by defining the market improperly. While Serrato's software is great for hip-hop artists, it's not as popular for artists that don't use scratch. Define a market narrowly enough and weird things happen. 

Allen points to the more fundamental issue:

In today’s world, an increasing number of Kiwi companies build and sell digital services, and are global from day one.

While the commission understood that Serato’s New Zealand revenue was a wafer-thin slice of the whole, the mere existence of any local sales meant it had to run the merger through its standard domestic-competition lens.

The second is that under-resourcing of the commission means even straightforward matters can take a year to determine. In the world of global M&A, that’s an eternity — enough time for opportunities, buyers and market conditions to change completely.

Both of these things need to change if we want New Zealand to continue to grow globally significant tech companies and realise top-dollar sales when their founders exit.

Otherwise, we risk sending an unhelpful message to the world: if you want to buy a Kiwi tech success story, prepare for a year in regulatory limbo, big legal bills, and the real chance the deal won’t happen at all.

Meanwhile, a message to local founders is base your company overseas and only sell your services to foreigners.

That’s not the kind of remix New Zealand should be famous for.

Set a de minimus standard such that if the NZ market is trivially small, it isn't worth the Commission's time. 

So that venture capital won't be scared of backing NZ startups for fear that NZ ComCom will block their reasonable exit if the play pans out and a large international company wants to buy their startup. 

How to define the threshold for the de minimus standard for a market of insufficient NZ importance? A number bigger than the market for hip-hop DJ software in NZ seems like a reasonable starter. 

Tuesday, 12 August 2025

To what policy problem is this the solution?

On my drive in to work yesterday, RNZ's Corin Dann challenged the Prime Minister about one part of his meeting with Australian PM Albanese. They had apparently promised to work toward some kind of joint ID and driver license system. 

I have rented a car in Australia using a NZ driver's licence. That was ages ago now. But has that gotten harder somehow? 

I understand that passports are required for proof of age if you want to buy alcohol, with licensees not recognising trans-Tasman driver licences. But is that a problem to which a joint driver licensing system is a solution? Or is it simpler to tell licensees that they can rely on trans-Tasman driver licenses as proof of age, while supplying sample copies of the various Oz state driver licenses (and the one NZ one) so folks are familiar with both and better able to recognise fakes.

If a bar in one Australian state can rely on driver licenses from other Australian states and the world doesn't end, it doesn't seem that much harder to teach the guy at the door how to also recognise a NZ driver licence. 

What is going on here? 

The joint statement by the two PMs gives a couple of hints.

10. Prime Ministers also launched a new phase of work to deliver mutual recognition of accredited digital identity services, and commended the cooperation between New Zealand and Australian States and Territories to facilitate the verification of digital drivers licences across borders.

24. Prime Ministers reaffirmed their commitment to ensuring all Pacific countries have access to safe, secure and stable banking. They welcomed ANZ’s announcement of its long‑term commitment to the region, secured by an Australian Government guarantee, and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia stepping in to provide banking services in Nauru. They also welcomed Australia’s announcement at the 2025 PIF Economic Ministers’ Meeting of further support for secure and inclusive digital identity systems across the Pacific. Prime Ministers noted Australia’s and New Zealand’s contributions to the Pacific Strengthening Correspondent Banking Relationships Project and recognised the importance of regional action to address the decline of correspondent banking relationships.

On a bit of checking:

There has been Twitter speculation that all of this is about age-gating social media. It looks like this push started well before anyone was talking about that. 


There are defensible use-cases for privacy-preserving verification. Having a system where I can request that the authenticator provide confirmation of specific details about me to a third party, and that third-party being able to confirm those details with or without needing to know anything else about me, has value. 

When the government set the Covid check-in app, it baked privacy in right from the outset. Scanning in at a place would let you get a notification that someone else who had scanned in at that place around the time you were there wound up testing positive for Covid. Done poorly, it would be a privacy nightmare. But they had folks like Andrew Chen working on it. It was fine. And there was lots of open discussion about it when it was being developed, so everyone knew that people who cared about privacy were in on the ground floor in building the thing. 

When the first a lot of us would have heard about a government digital ID is in context of a trans-Tasman agreement for mutual recognition, in context of Australia wanting to age-gate social media, and nobody particularly trusting that the age-gate system isn't intended to result in the kind of censorship being seen in Australia - not so hot. 

Just a bizarre thing for the government to highlight without having put up explanations ahead of time. 

The PM's talk had this as all being about mutual recognition of driver licences. Which is obviously a weird justification. We already recognise each other's licences. And if Oz and NZ makes it tough for bars to recognise each other's licenses as ID, that's far more easily solved by just letting bars use the other country's driver's licence. The rest of it isn't needed for that problem. 

Instead - both countries are working toward digital IDs, both countries five years ago agreed that they'd recognise each other's digital IDs, and this seems just to be reaffirming that prior agreement. I'd love there to be more assurance around privacy being important in the design of any of these in NZ. Because there are very bad versions that should not be supported.

Monday, 11 August 2025

Breaking the internet

There are a lot of metrics folks can use when evaluating policy.

"Will this policy break the internet" is an important one. At least for me and the handful of folks who were online in the 90s. 

Age-gating social media, or otherwise making platforms/sites liable if kids see sensitive content there, is one way of breaking the internet.

It has not been going well in the UK, where making sites liable if kids see 'sensitive' content has meant geoblocks on content that could be considered sensitive, pending Know Your Customer verification that the person on the other end of the web browser is an adult.

My column in today's Post went through some of those issues. New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Luxon seems very keen on setting age gates on social media. Any policy putting liability on platforms if kids access the platform will require others to prove that they're adults - the same kind of KYC mess that the UK is getting itself into.


Breaking the internet should not be a vote-winner. C'mon. 


Wednesday, 6 August 2025

I'd love a Kalshi market on this one

There isn't really international law. 

There are treaties, there are conventions, there are norms, there are customs. 

But all of it is against a particular backdrop. 

If a country's government just doesn't wanna and it matters a lot to it, you're going to have a hard time making it unless you're ready to impose sanctions or invade. And if one of the ones that just doesn't wanna is on the security council, good luck with the invasion option. 

So international bodies work within that constraint. There are bounds on what's achievable based on countries' tolerance about being bound. 

And it seems important to stay within those bounds lest the whole thing collapse. 

I'd love to see a Kalshi or Polymarket contract on whether China or the United States or the Saudis will ever pay a fine assessed by the International Court of Justice for producing greenhouse gases. 

Here's The Guardian:

Today, Australia has found itself on the wrong side of history.

The International Court of Justice has handed down a landmark ruling in the most significant climate decision ever issued by a court. As a barrister representing Solomon Islands in the case, I was in the courtroom to hear the judges reshape the global fight for climate justice.

The world’s top court resoundingly rejected conservative arguments made by Australia and other high-emitting countries such as the United States, China and Saudi Arabia seeking to justify continued fossil fuel extraction. Instead, the court made a slew of progressive statements – ones that will have far-reaching implications.

Under international law, countries are now bound to rapidly reduce their emissions below 1.5 degrees of warming. Failure to do so could result in developed countries like Australia having to pay monetary compensation to developing countries or being required to rebuild infrastructure and restore ecosystems damaged by climate change. This means we could be entering a new era of climate reparations.

My bet: if claimant countries are careful, they will only sue countries like New Zealand, Canada, and some European countries. Ones that might at least pretend to comply with a ruling and provide some kind of transfers in response. Canada might promise to pay and then hand out coupons for Canadian cheddar, redeemable only on one single Tuesday afternoon between the hours of 13:45 and 13:46 at a Canadian Tire outlet in Iqaluit - subject to availability of cheddar and whether there is a Canadian Tire there in the first place. But it'd be something. 

If they sue the US, China, or the Saudis - they're not going to get compensation. 

And if they sue a mix of countries, some of which play nice and some of which don't, the whole ICJ process risks looking like a mug’s game. That risks delegitimising a court that might be better off maintaining a more modest, more enforceable remit.

I'm not an IR guy though. Weakly held view that this whole thing is a terrible idea with serious downside risk, happy to be convinced otherwise. 

The Guardian piece was from a couple of weeks ago; I'd had this post in draft. I was reminded of it though by comments from Labour's Deborah Russell in Carbon News, where Labour promised to reinstate the oil and gas ban:

Speaking in the general debate in Parliament last week, as the government was set to pass the bill to repeal the oil and gas ban, Labour Party list MP Deborah Russell slammed the coalition government’s lack of action on climate change.

Russell recalled Climate Change Minister Simon Watts’ comments earlier this year that “no one sends you an invoice” for climate change liability.

“But just last week,” Russell said, “the International Court of Justice delivered its judgment on the obligations of States in respect of climate change… it says that States must act on climate change or be held responsible.”

Russell referenced several of the judgement’s findings, including that States must regulate private actors' emissions, States have a responsibility around climate change and that climate action can trigger legal consequences.

Significantly, the finding opens the door for nation states to sue other countries for climate damages – legal consequences could include “full reparations to injured states”, including “restitution, compensation and satisfaction.”

I would hope that a sufficient defence for New Zealand would be:

"Every tonne of New Zealand emissions from any new gas well must be accompanied by the surrender of one NZU. If people burn gas, the ETS means that either someone else has reduced some other emission, or someone has sequestered a tonne of emissions - probably in a forest. So the new well has no effect on New Zealand's net emissions. The only thing that affects New Zealand's net emissions is the number of unbacked NZU that the government chooses to issue or allocate. And if you think that number is worth suing us over, whether new drilling is allowed or not is irrelevant."

Wednesday, 30 July 2025

Misunderstanding the policy process

Policy development happens through a complex interplay of politicians' directives, civil servants' work, and civil society input. 

Bryce Edwards is director at The Integrity Institute, which has been pretty critical about anyone's involvement in policy processes other than the bureaucracy and anyone considered to not have a financial stake in an outcome. 

Last week, BusinessDesk found the Institute's trust deed. Or, rather, decided it was worth checking over at the Company's Office to see what it says. And the whole document is really weird. Things that ought to be operational decisions for the Director are instead hard-coded into the deed. The rest is a combination of direction to do the obvious and specific targets they want investigated, like going after Transparency International. 

I'd threaded the thing; you can't link directly to a Companies Office filing. 

There's been a fair bit of tu quoque over this. But the best take I think thus far is from Deb Te Kawa. A snip:
Sometimes, those who claim to defend democracy are the ones who misunderstand it most. The Integrity Institute’s recent campaign, ostensibly about exposing undue influence over policy, has revealed something more troubling: a fundamental confusion about how policy advice, participation, and legitimacy actually work in democratic systems.

The policy advisory literature has long since moved past the myth of the neutral bureaucracy. As Craft and Howlett (2012) argue, modern advisory systems are pluralised and layered. Policy advice no longer flows solely from within the state. It emerges through dynamic interaction between political actors, ministerial advisers, public servants, and external stakeholders: including iwi, hapÅ«, academics, commentators, lobbyists, consultants, contractors, industry and community interest groups, and civil society. This is not a breakdown in integrity. It is a shift in how democratic knowledge is produced and contested; a shift that has been underway since 1996, when we began correcting for the distortions of the 1980s’ new public management reforms.

Rather than engage with this shift, the Integrity Institute appears to reject its premise. In targeting Federated Farmers, the Institute frames visible, declared advocacy as inherently suspect. Yet publishing policy platforms, meeting with ministers, or advocating for sector interests is entirely within the bounds of democratic practice. As Craft and Halligan (2020) remind us, robust advisory systems must accommodate both internal and external sources of advice. To treat advocacy as corruption is to misread the core architecture of modern policy-making.

This conflation is not just technically inaccurate. It is democratically dangerous. Legitimacy in policy does not come from insulation. As I have been exploring in the Waitangi Tribunal Thursdays series, and arguing in The Practical State, it comes from contestability, transparency, and deliberative engagement.

Whether it’s iwi asserting rangatiratanga, unions calling for fairer conditions, or academics and researchers offering empirical insight, the presence of diverse voices is a safeguard, and not a threat. As the policy advisory literature insists, multiple advisory channels are vital for balanced decision-making in complex societies.

The real question, then, is not whether influence exists. It always does. The question is: what kind of influence, under what conditions, and with what visibility? The distinction between transparent, procedural engagement and opaque, privileged access is not semantic. It is constitutional. Effective oversight requires more than tracing contacts. It demands a grounded understanding of procedural fairness, institutional independence, and the layered nature of advisory input.

With that particular critique in mind, let's have a look at a different campaign. 

One that Guyon Espiner has been running, on the public dime, at Radio New Zealand, and at RNZ-Newsroom co-production The Detail. 

In his telling, shadowy alcohol industry influence stymied admirable public health efforts to adopt new and stricter Canadian low-risk drinking guidelines.

He's had a lot of airplay on this. If you're reading this in New Zealand, you've been forced to pay for it. 

So what is that shadowy influence?

David Farrar has the correspondence. 

The Brewers Association wrote to Ministry of Health asking for details on a review of the low-risk drinking guidelines. And there was also correspondence on the use of the alcohol levy - a small levy imposed on every bit of alcohol sold, used to fund various harm-reduction efforts. Producer levy schemes tend to have producer involvement. 

The Brewers also pointed out what looked like an error on the Health NZ website (recall that Health NZ is the operational arm, Ministry is policy). They thought that some proposed Canadian guidelines had actually been implemented. 

Health Canada had commissioned a third party to produce revised alcohol guidelines. That was a couple of years ago. Those proposed guidelines have not been adopted or ratified by Health Canada. And two different Ministers of Mental Health and Addictions, in late 2024 and early 2025, have confirmed that the 2011 guidelines remain the ones in place. 

Health NZ thought that Canada had tightened its guidelines and was taking this as basis for tightening ours. 

The Brewers pointed out an error. The Ministry of Health saw that error corrected. And Guyon Espiner deemed the whole thing an example of influence that needs to be stopped. Of course, on his podcast interview with The Detail, he hedges a bit - saying he's only raising questions and noting how interesting it is that a framework convention bars industry discussion with government in the case of tobacco but not for alcohol. Not that he's campaigning to get the framework convention extended to alcohol. 

Let's go back to Deb's piece. 

As Craft and Howlett (2012) argue, modern advisory systems are pluralised and layered. Policy advice no longer flows solely from within the state. It emerges through dynamic interaction between political actors, ministerial advisers, public servants, and external stakeholders: including iwi, hapū, academics, commentators, lobbyists, consultants, contractors, industry and community interest groups, and civil society. This is not a breakdown in integrity. It is a shift in how democratic knowledge is produced and contested;

The Brewers found an error. Min Health made the same mistake Espiner did, potentially based in motivated reasoning - wishing that the Canadians had given NZ an excuse to tighten guidelines here. 

That error was corrected, because we don't stick bureaucrats in towers and ask them to hand down advice from on-high. There is interaction. It is helpful. It makes things suck less. 

Some campaigners, like Edwards, and like Espiner, seem not to like it when that interaction results in policies that they like less. They seem to view it as inherently corrupt. At least Edwards isn't doing it on public funding. 

David Farrar's post with the correspondence went up on the 25th. 

The day before that, I submitted a column to Newsroom on the topic, because I'd first caught this on their site - they co-produce The Detail. I sent it through on Wednesday of last week for my usual slot on Tuesday - earlier than usual, because it was critiquing some of their work and I wanted to give them time with it. 

After asking that I add a lot more detail on the evidence around moderate drinking, they decided not to run it. There was an in-house view that Espiner had sufficiently couched what he'd said on The Detail. Perhaps there was a background worry that publishing a critique would make a likely press council / BSA complaint about The Detail piece more viable; I wouldn't know. 

I brought the piece back to 800 words; it was in Monday's Post as a full-page print piece (and presumably Press etc). An ungated version is here. I confirmed bits of the correspondence with the Brewers Association in the interval. 

The full piece I'd sent to Newsroom is below; it's a lot longer than the version at the Post, in part because they asked me to add a fair bit of content. 

I only saw Deb's piece after all this. But it's been rolling around in my head since then. The policy process really isn't what some of these campaigners seem to wish it were. 

Anyway - the piece that Newsroom declined. I declined to write a substitute piece for them for this week.