Showing posts with label Tyler Cowen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tyler Cowen. Show all posts

Tuesday, 7 November 2023

Morning roundup

A closing of the browser tabs:

Tuesday, 1 March 2022

Afternoon roundup

The closing of the browser tabs:


Wednesday, 16 June 2021

Afternoon roundup

The afternoon's closing of the browser tabs brings a few worthies:

Friday, 25 September 2020

Afternoon roundup

The tabs... there are so many of them.

A few notes on the closing of the tabs.

Wednesday, 12 February 2020

Conversations with Atwood

Not everyone seems to have enjoyed Margaret Atwood's book forum in Auckland with Chloe Swarbrick.

I wasn't there.

But I did catch Tyler Cowen's superb talk with her. The podcast and transcript are all up here. A few highlights below. Cowen's breadth always amazes. You look across the range of folks he's interviewed, and the depth he'll cover...
COWEN: I’m a big fan of your novel, Hag-Seed, which I believe is your latest. A few questions about that and Shakespeare: How sympathetic is Shakespeare to Caliban in The Tempest?
ATWOOD: Shakespeare himself, when he was doing The Tempest, I think, saw Caliban as one of his comic figures. But as always with Shakespeare, nothing is two-dimensional. So The Tempest underwent a number of different metamorphoses in performance since Shakespeare. We have The Tempest. Then we have Oliver Cromwell. The theater gets shut down. The tradition is broken.
When the theaters come back, they can’t actually remember how these things were done. So in the 18th century, The Tempest was an opera, and they added some people. They added a person called Dorinda, who is Miranda’s sister, so that they could have an ensemble group of singers, obviously. Then they added another guy so that Dorinda would have somebody to marry. Then they learned how to fly Ariel, and Ariel flew around.
Then when they tried to bring back the original Tempest, nobody liked it because they wanted the opera. They wanted Dorinda and the flying Ariel. In the 19th century, when Ariel was always played by a woman who flew around, Caliban became a romantic sort of Byronic hero, oddly enough. Because by that time, people had caught up with slavery in the United States, and noble savages and other things like that that were of the 19th century.
COWEN: And he has real charisma.
ATWOOD: Well, it depends how he’s played. It really depends, and I’ve seen, by this time, a lot of performances of The Tempest, including film ones. One by Julie Taymor, in which Prospero is Prospera — she’s the duchess of Milan — has a pretty good Caliban.
But he has a lot of resonance. He’s given the most poetic lines in the play, actually. There’s a big question about him, which is, what happens to him at the end? We’re not told. It’s another of these open questions. We just don’t know.
COWEN: How sympathetic are you to Prospero? There’s a line in Hag-Seed: “He would seem to be the top jailer in this play.”
ATWOOD: Well, he is.
COWEN: Do you like him?
ATWOOD: Like or dislike, it kind of doesn’t matter. Whether I like or dislike him, I’m sympathetic to him in some ways. But he says himself that he got himself into this. He was the duke. He didn’t do his dukely duties. He didn’t behave in a duke-like way. He went off to study magic instead, and he let his brother usurp the kingdom. By doing so, of course, he threw his young child into danger and ended them up on this island.
If you want to know why he wants to get off of it, look at the menus, which I did. I did a little foodie piece for a food magazine on what they were actually eating. It’s not fun.
COWEN: As Leggs suggests in Hag-Seed, is there any chance that Prospero is Caliban’s dad?
ATWOOD: Think about it.
COWEN: Someone has to be, right?
ATWOOD: Think about it. Somebody has to be his dad. So, if we’re not accepting the devil as being the progenitor of Caliban, who is? I ask you. They’re both in the magic business. Why would they have not met up at a convention? Sort of a one-night stand producing Caliban.

COWEN: Handmaid’s Tale — is it an accident that you started it in West Berlin in, I think, 1984?
ATWOOD: Wasn’t that corny? It was very corny, but I couldn’t avoid it. If I had been able to do it in some other year, I would have because, inevitably, this question comes up. But I just happened to be in West Berlin. I didn’t go there on purpose to do that. But there I was, and how handy it was because it was the wall all around. And being Canadian, I could go into places like East Germany and Czechoslovakia and Poland easier than German nationals could. So I did.
COWEN: You had had a prior trip to Afghanistan. Did that influence the book at all?
ATWOOD: A bit, yeah. I was lucky enough to see Afghanistan six weeks before the present unpleasantness started. Six weeks before they assassinated Daoud. It was clear, and it always has been a crossroads, and it’s always been desirable. It’s always been desired by China, by Russia, and by anybody else in the vicinity because things went through it.
At the time we were there, there was a great big Chinese embassy. There was a great big USSR embassy. And there was a great big American embassy. Daoud was doing quite well by playing them off against each other and getting stuff out of them. They should have stuck with him. But it’s been chaos ever since. I saw it at the last minute before a lot of things just got blown up.
COWEN: Did reading the Book of Genesis serve as an actual influence on Handmaid’s Tale? Or it’s just a connection you noticed later?
ATWOOD: Oh, no, it’s right there in the epigraph. So the question to you is, if you’re going to take the Bible literally, how literally would you like to take it?
COWEN: Is it the Jacob version of this story or the Abraham-Sarah-Hagar version of the story that grabbed you? Usually you mention the Jacob version of the story.
ATWOOD: Yeah.
COWEN: There’s the second one. Why?
ATWOOD: Because it’s got more people in it.
COWEN: But the first version has a happy ending, right? You get Isaac, you get Ishmael. They each found tribes.
ATWOOD: Why would I write a book with a happy ending?
[laughter]
ATWOOD: Yeah, it’s not such a happy ending. It’s a very ambivalent ending, I would say. Abraham is a very dicey character in the Bible. But there’s a wonderful book called God: A Biography, which is by Jack —
COWEN: The Miles book, yeah.
ATWOOD: Yeah, it’s a wonderful book. I love it. It’s got the best exploration of the Book of Job that I’ve ever read. I think it’s brilliant.
But remember where my roots are. I’m Canadian. We took the Bible in school. There wasn’t any separation of church and state. Then I went to college and studied with Northrop Frye. Then I went to Harvard and studied with Perry Miller. And for all those people, you had to know the Bible.
Go read or listen to the whole thing. I had no clue about her entrepreneurial ventures and patents.

Tuesday, 26 November 2019

Afternoon roundup

This afternoon's worthies:
  • Vic Uni's James Kierstead and Michael Johnston in defence of free speech. 
    Liberalism and democracy, as Karl Popper recognised, rest on substantive values, values that have to be defended if liberal democracy is to survive and flourish. And it’s up to all of us to do the work of defending these values. If we say nothing while governments, corporations and ideologues threaten and quash the free expression of ideas, we are, at least tacitly, voting democracy out of existence.
  • What a beautiful validity check. Do better teachers really make students taller?

  • Business regulations and poverty
    Using panel data for 189 economies from 2005 to 2013, this paper shows that business-friendly regulations are correlated with the poverty headcount at the country level. This association is significant using the World Bank's Doing Business indicators on getting credit and contract enforcement. The findings suggest that the conduit for poverty reduction is business creation, as a source of new jobs and a manifestation of thriving entrepreneurship.
  • Mark Zuckerberg, Patrick Collison and Tyler Cowen talk progress.

Wednesday, 28 June 2017

Afternoon roundup

The notables from the lunchtime closing of the browser tabs:

Thursday, 15 October 2015

O-Ring models and NZ productivity

The long low-productivity tail of firms isn't just a New Zealand problem. Here's Alex Tabarrok on a new OECD report. The key image is this one: the gap between frontier firms and everyone else is becoming huge.

 productivity

Tyler Cowen wonders whether this might be due to O-Ring production models. Where the highest valued stuff requires having zero screw-ups at any point down the line, the returns to having no screw-ups start increasing hugely.

As Alex points out in this helpful explainer, the top firms pay the most across all tasks, even the low value tasks, because they can't afford to have anything go wrong.


I suspect that this is, in part, behind New Zealand's fairly flat inequality stats. We don't really have many of the frontier firms, so we don't get frontier firm salaries, so we don't have the run-up in top salaries - and it's not really to the country's longer run benefit either.

Here's Cowen:
Yesterday Alex outlined the facts, which I take to be not in dispute. Firms at the frontier have seen significant productivity gains, the others not so much. Alex calls this a “lack of innovation diffusion” and considers whether IP law might be one cause.

My framing is somewhat different. The result reminds me of the international trade literature on why so few firms export. The notions of increasing returns to scale, and fixed costs to trade abroad, provide the beginnings of an answer. In such a setting, let’s say the world has become more globalized, more IRS, and more based on learning curves, much of those trends being attributable to information technology. In that case we would expect a growing bifurcation of firm productivity outcomes, just as we find a strong bifurcation of export outcomes, with a relatively small percentage of firms doing most of the international trade, or innovating, as the case may be. The “only a small percentage of firms export” and the “only a small percentage of firms are on the productivity frontier” may sometimes even be the same way of describing the same basic fact.

The on the ground reality I observe is that the large, famous, exporting firms put together fantastic O-Ring teams of talent in a way the smaller, medium-size enterprises do not. That is the relevant diffusion barrier, but of course there may be limits on that diffusion as well. Eliminating barriers across firms is a good idea but not enough either.
It's worth thinking through the implications for New Zealand.

Tuesday, 28 April 2015

Difficulties in Kaldor-Hicks compensation

Tyler Cowen's right: the TPP will be great for poor East Asian countries like Vietnam, who would get both improved access to American markets and stronger domestic liberalisation.
Here is an assessment from the Peterson Institute that Vietnam will be the biggest gainer from TPP.  Do you get that, progressives?  Poorest country = biggest gainer.  Isn’t that what we are looking for?  And if you are a deontologist, Vietnam is a country we have been especially unjust to in the past.

Yes, I am familiar with the IP and tech criticisms of TPP, and I agree with many of them.  But if you add those costs up, in utilitarian terms I doubt if they amount to more than a fraction of the potential benefit for the ninety million people of Vietnam.  TPP is more of a “no brainer” than a close call.

Most generally, one of the big dangers today is “The Great Unraveling of Globalization.”  Is the passing or the striking down of TPP more likely to contribute to that trend?  People, you are allowed only three guesses on that one.
Tyler's writing for an American audience, where TPP opposition is concentrated among the anti-trade left. But that's not the only source of opposition: some foreign opposition comes from the silly IP and tech provisions, though we won't really know what's all in there until the full deal is released.

New Zealand, as best we understand things, has been working hard to ensure that American copyright interests not appropriate too substantial a share of the gains here at stake.

I don't get what's going on in the US domestic politics on this one. The deal is important to Obama, not just for the good economic reasons but also for the geopolitical "maintain US relative influence in the Pacific" considerations. The deal will produce a fair bit of surplus, both in the US and elsewhere. There seem to be some side-payments to US labour interests in mandating environmental and labour standards; the budget for American domestic side-payments is a bit leaner than it could have been where there are big chunks carved out for Hollywood - which also annoy a bunch of the potential trading partners. Maybe it's just harder to put together a package that appropriately divvies up sidepayments where negotiations drag on for years and years.

I still think NZ does better in being prepared to walk away from the whole deal and try for an alternative Pacific free-trade area that leaves the US out if the copyright provisions would block parallel importation or commit New Zealand to other absurdities.

Thursday, 8 January 2015

Self-driving surplus

The Oatmeal glimpses into the self-driving future. And it is awesome.
I'm biased. Earlier this year my mom had a stroke. It damaged the visual cortex of her brain, and her vision was impaired to the point that she'll probably never drive again. This reduced her from a fully-functional, independent human being with a career and a buzzing social life into someone who is homebound, disabled, and powerless.

When discussing self-driving cars, people tend to ask a lot of superficial questions: how much will these cars cost? Is this supposed to replace my car at home? Is this supposed to replace taxis or Uber? What if I need to use a drive-thru?

They ignore the smarter questions. They ignore the fact that 45% of disabled people in the US still work. (Source: page 20) They ignore the fact that 95% of a car's lifetime is spent parked.(Source) They ignore how this technology could transform the lives of the elderly, or eradicate the need for parking lots or garages or gas stations. They dismiss the entire concept because they don't think a computer could ever be as good at merging on the freeway as they are.

They ignore the great, big, beautiful picture staring them right in the face: that this technology could make our lives so much better.
The levelling-up in consumer surplus will be unfathomable.

Driving is fun, and it's worth keeping the option to do that sometimes. But commuting? Robo-Uber? Nobody would need a second car; many wouldn't need a first car; urban parking need would plummet because most folks would flip to constantly driving self-driving options that stop only to switch passengers so urban form would change for the better. Everything will be awesome.

But it isn't without risk - back to Oatmeal:
Riding in a self-driving car is not the white-knuckled, cybernetic thrill ride one might expect. The car drives like a person, and after a few minutes you forget that you’re being driven autonomously. You forget that a robot is differentiating cars from pedestrians from mopeds from raccoons. You forget that millions of photons are being fired from a laser and interpreting, processing, and reacting to the hand signals of a cyclist. You forget that instead of an organic brain, which has had millions of years to evolve the cognitive ability to fumble its way through a four-way stop, you’re being piloted by an artificial one, which was birthed in less than a decade.

The unfortunate part of something this transformative is the inevitable, ardent stupidity which is going to erupt from the general public. Even if in a few years self-driving cars are proven to be ten times safer than human-operated cars, all it’s going to take is one tragic accident and the public is going to lose their minds. There will be outrage. There will be politicizing. There will be hashtags.

It’s going to suck.

But I say to hell with the public. Let them spend their waking lives putt-putting around on a crowded interstate with all the other half-lucid orangutans on their cell phones.

I say look at the bigger picture. All the self-driving cars currently on the road learn from one another, and each car now collectively possesses 40 years of driving experience. And this technology is still in its infancy.

I say ignore the anecdotes, embrace the data.

I’m ready for our army of Skynet Marshmallow Bumper Bots.

I'm ready for the future. I'm ready for the marshmallows.
And even if we solve all that, there will still be the carping whining idiotic complaint that Brin and Google, who might get half a percent of the consumer surplus if they're lucky, are still earning "too much", that inequality's gone up, or that they're not paying enough in taxes for having had the temerity to make our lives indescribably better.

I'm imagining Cowen's update on this, one of my favourite of his....
OK, people, it's no more Mr. Nice Guy. I'm fed up! No more moderation, no more namby-pamby conciliations to those I disagree with, at least not today. I am plain, hopping mad. And who has pushed me over the edge?...

iPhone early adopters. (I’m one of them, though a virtuous one.) You may have heard, they just cut the price on iPhones. Get this:
“I just felt so used as a consumer,” he said. “They hyped up the iPhone for six months and built up our expectations, and then they grabbed our extra $200 and ran.”
...
It is you people, you who resent Coase (1972), you people who induce wage and price stickiness and widen the Okun gap. You people, who don’t know what it means to sit back and enjoy your consumer surplus. You beasts!

And to think you are all carrying around these wonderful icons of modernity in your pockets…

AAARRRGGGHH!
The other low-probability risk: give it a few decades, and the human-driving option will be close to banned. Fortunately, my uncle has a country place....

Wednesday, 25 June 2014

Nerd Pride

Tyler Cowen reminds us of a Hanson point: politics is about status.
I was disappointed but not surprised by this passage by Gary Silverman:
What I like about Obamacare is that it shows some respect for “those people” – as Hudson called them in Giant – who are good enough to work the fields and mow the lawns, and build the roads and sew the clothes, and diaper the babies and wash the dishes, but somehow aren’t good enough to see a doctor from time to time to make sure there is nothing wrong inside.
That is in fact what most of politics is about, namely debates over which groups should enjoy higher social status and which groups should receive lower social status. Of course critics of Obamacare have their own versions of desired status reallocation, typically involving higher status for the economically productive.

...

The deeper point is that virtually all of us argue this way, albeit with more subtlety. A lot of the more innocuous-sounding arguments we use all the time come perilously close to committing the same fallacies as do these quite transparent and I would say quite obnoxious mistaken excerpts. One of the best paths for becoming a good reader of economics and politics blog posts (and other material) is to learn when you are encountering these kinds of arguments in disguised form.
I agree.

And so we come to Noah Smith's article wishing for higher nerd status, or at least an end to nerd-bashing.
Seriously, America. The nerd-bashing has gone too far. Sure, there is a grain of truth in all of the criticisms of the tech industry -- but only a grain. Yes, startups are riskier than many founders realize; but founders are people with good skills who will never go hungry. Yes, San Francisco rents are out of control, but this is more about development policy and NIMBYism than Google and Apple. Yes, inequality is increasing, but it’s increasing across all industries and classes, and bashing Silicon Valley isn't going to stop the march of automation. Yes, big American companies and corporate governance need to improve, but bashing “disruptive” startups isn't going to help the situation. Yes, some tech companies ignore the public interest when pushing for deregulation, but show me an industry that doesn’t do that. Yes, there are sociopaths and wackos among the ranks of tech entrepreneurs, but they’re certainly a tiny minority. (The only tech industry problem that really seems to live up to the hype is the sexism.)
...
We’re looking for rich, successful people to bash. And Silicon Valley happens to be where the rich, successful people are right now. So we’ve turned on the nerds.
... 
Still, I’m irked. I’m a child of the 1980s, when jocks ruled the high schools, and nerds were confined to the basement while the good ol’ boys slapped backs and made deals. When the bespectacled Bill Gates became the world’s richest person, something changed for the better, and I don’t want to go back to the old days. The tech backlash is just another situation where America needs to put aside its urge to turn inward and demonize some subset of the population. We should work to fix the problems associated with the industry, of course, but vitriol isn't the way to do it. The nerds are not the hosts of Mordor.
 Bryan Caplan arguably predicted much of this in his nerd/jock theory of history:
Notice: For financial success, the main measure where nerds now excel, governments make quite an effort to equalize differences. But on other margins of social success, where many nerds still struggle, laissez-faire prevails.
It's suspicious - and if you combine the Jock/Nerd Theory with some evolutionary psych, it makes sense. When the best hunter in the tribe gets rich, his neighbors will probably ask nicely for a share, if they dare to ask at all. But if the biggest nerd in the tribe gets rich, how long will it take before the jocks show up and warn him that "You'd better share and share alike"?
Punchline: Through the lens of the Jock/Nerd Theory of History, the welfare state doesn't look like a serious effort to "equalize outcomes." It looks more like a serious effort to block the "revenge of the nerds" - to keep them from using their financial success to unseat the jocks on every dimension of social status.
I'd love to see a version of Piketty that looks at inequality in dating success for those aged 16-25. Has that inequality gotten larger or smaller over time? Does anyone know? Does anyone other than the nerds care?

It wouldn't be hard to build a stylised case that social changes from the 1960s through to present that decoupled dating from marriage-search for the first decade of dating strongly benefited the jocks at the expense of the nerds. But we have no empirics on it. How would a Herfindahl dating concentration index change over time? Or a Gini coefficient?

Which inequalities matter is more interesting than what's going on on any particular margin of inequality.

Tuesday, 4 March 2014

Voton's staff, Loge's contracts, and Ukraine

Tyler Cowen asks how much American credibility is at stake in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Under a plausible reading, American inaction signals to China that America would do nothing were China to start messing around with Japan or Taiwan.

But careful for the fine print when Loge's writing the contracts. The security guarantee only committed America to helping Ukraine out if Russia uses nukes. And even then, they don't have to do much. Here's Outside the Beltway:
Likewise, the parties “reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.” Emphasis mine. So, unless Russia uses nuclear weapons, the other signatories have no obligation to do anything. If Russia were, unfathomably, to threaten or use nukes, then the other parties would be obligated to take the matter to the Security Council—where Russia would promptly veto any proposed action.
When Voton had Loge write the contract with the giant brothers, he hoped that Loge would be able to find a way to avoid his ever having to pay Fasolt and Fafnir: any defect in Valhalla's construction meant no payment was needed. But the giants built it perfectly, and so Voton had to find a way to pay lest the basis of his overlordship, the contracts carved into his spear, all unravel. The giants knew that Loge's contracts were tricky and needed careful attention.

I know nothing about the fine print in America's security guarantees to Taiwan, Japan, or South Korea. If the fine print is sound, I'd expect War Father to follow through with his agreements. If it's all tacit and implicit, then maybe there's a problem.

Update: Ilya Somin suggests sanctions targeting Russia's elite. I suppose that's easier as Europe heads into spring. Justin Eric Haldor Smith provides some history.

Friday, 11 January 2013

The plucking of low-hanging fruit

Tyler Cowen argued that some 20th Century growth was due to educational growth: in the early 20th Century, an awful lot of very smart people didn't get much education. By the 1970s, the gains from getting that pool of highly skilled labour into higher return occupations had largely already been exploited. Here's The Economist's take:
What low-hanging fruit? Educational fruit, for instance. Decades ago, the rich world was moving most of its population from very low levels of education to university educations, and was shifting lots of potential geniuses from the fields to the factories to the research labs. That was relatively easy to do and it fueled a big growth boom. These days, improvements in educational attainment are quite hard. Nearly half of all young people now go to college. Moving marginal students into college will require a lot of effort and won't yield large gains. That doesn't mean it isn't worth doing, he says. It simply means that easy gains from education are gone.
That move hadn't started in the rural Manitoba of the 1930s.

From my uncle Daniel Hacault's eulogy to my grandfather, who died 3 January aged 87:
Years ago I had talked to George Hutlet about what kind of student Dad was. George smiled and said he was always in trouble with the nuns and that he doodled a lot. Not very studious at all. Dad got his Grade 8 and left school to work on the farm, not an auspicious beginning for someones life, maybe not too smart-maybe not too bright. REALLY?

Dad was a self educated man. When we were young there were always books around that he read on algebra, welding and finance that he used to round out his education. Dad took a correspondence course in drafting and I can remember the mechanical drawings of machinery he had built or was about to build rolled up on his desk. His education was built on problem solving and common sense.

Lewis and I found a micrometer he had made when cleaning out the shop on the farm.  He probably made it in the 1950's. We measured it with a digital caliper and it is still accurate to a thousandth of an inch. It is on display in the hall.  Dad's metal lathe abilities are legendary and we still needed him to give us advice on how to center a work piece last year. Dad's self education instilled in his children a desire to learn either a trade or achieve higher education in university.

As you can see from the story, Dad was very mechanically inclined. He could fix or build almost anything. I can remember taking phone calls for the neighbors looking for “TI PAUL” to fix or build some farm machinery. I heard a story that he even built a double burner still for some of his more adventurous customers. His mechanical abilities filtered down to his sons in varying degrees. His boys followed in his inquisitive footsteps and dismantled his accordion – just to see how it worked. I think this put an end to his musical career as a polka band leader.
 I didn't know about the still. But it makes me smile.

Thursday, 31 May 2012

Pro tips for Twitter hackers

There's clearly a pretty strong market opportunity for criminals who aren't complete idiots to reorganize the "hack a Twitter account, send out spam tweets" industry.

Whoever hacked Tyler Cowen's account used it to send out two spam Tweets:"An amazing new weight loss product! It worked for me and I didnt even change my diet!" and "Lose 5 lbs of Fat in a week", both sending the user to some t.co address I dare not hit. It's hard to imagine anybody who follows Tyler would have seen those and thought it more likely that he'd sent them than that his account was hacked.

I would have thought that Twitter account hackers would have run everything through a filter. Anybody with small numbers of followers or low Klout scores would get the lame spam tweets. But Tyler has a Klout score of 60 and about 20,000 followers, including some of the world's top economists and surely some top of the world's top government and central bank officials (among those on Twitter). I would have thought that a flag would go up for hackers that accounts with >10k followers or Klout >50 just might be worth a bit more individualised attention.

What sort of individualised attention? A decent proportion of Tyler's followers would have hit a link recommended by @TylerCowen to something like "This is the new best explanation of how the Euro crisis will unfold". I'm (obviously) not even trying to make it sound like Tyler. Scrape the content from some page from the Economist, FT, Scott Sumner - whatever. Put it on a malware infection site. A thousand really high value computers get directed to the site; maybe you get 250 infections depending on the strength of folks' security settings.

Just flip through the first 50 Tweets and see what's drawn a lot of clicks (hover over a bit.ly link sometime). Based on the feed, I'd have set up malware sites with fake reviews of Tyler's new book (Twitter teaser: Now this review of *An Economist Gets Lunch* is particularly unfair [link]); something on the EuroCrisis, a eulogy to Doc Watson, and something on fear of GMO foods. All of those drew lots of click-throughs. And throw in one like "A handy guide for every central banker as the Euro dissolves." Scrape dummy content into malware sites for each.

So obviously Twitter spammers aren't doing this. Or at least Tyler's hacker didn't. We can then conclude:

  • The expected per user returns to malware infections are very low, even for potentially high value infections;
  • I'm overestimating how easy it is to do this; cognitive limitations are more binding that I expect.
  • Tyler's followers just got a lucky draw; he was hacked by somebody who installed FireSheep and isn't linked into any particularly sophisticated networks. 
The first one's potentially plausible. The second one isn't - somebody will figure it out and will pay more for hacked account login details than will other spammers. The third can be sustained in equilibrium if you've always new hackers downloading FireSheep and imperfect information on who's paying most for hacked accounts. 

Tyler Tweets

If you hacked Tyler Cowen's twitter account, with almost 20k followers, surely you'd do something more interesting than send out a generic spam note about some new diet.
What a waste. Given this opportunity, you could either go for lulz or for money.

On the money side, I have a hard time seeing a better play than shorting Spanish or Italian debt and then claiming that you have it on good authority from a central bank insider that default is imminent. There's a slight risk you cause the default by setting a run, but that's more a feature than a bug. Update: On second thought, pushing a penny stock likely gets more cash but fewer lulz.

If you're in it for the lulz, @ModeledBehavior delivers up gold at #TylerTweets - the hashtag Justin Wolfers suggested. I'd put up this:
But @ModeledBehavior's offerings are much funnier:



@ModeledBehaviour, I salute you and your mad surrealist Cowenesque stylings. When you finally decide to make the end-game play with your growing Twitter and blogging audiences, it will be glorious.

Update: It gets better! While everybody who's anybody is playing #TylerTweets and often hitting @tylercowen in their updates, the spammer puts up another lame offering:

What a waste.

Monday, 30 April 2012

The grass is rarely greener

It's always worth remembering that things are often worse elsewhere.

The University of Canterbury annual reports have expenditures on academic salaries at $82m, with another $79m for general staff. So we're still spending more on academics than on administrators.

I doubt that's true at the University of California, if today's report is correct [HT: Marginal Revolution].
Data available from the UC Office of the President shows that there were 2.5 faculty members for each senior manager in the UC system in 1993. Now there are as many senior managers as faculty.  Just think: Each professor could have his or her personal senior manager.
I'd be pretty surprised if the general staff didn't outnumber the academic staff at Canterbury - while the upper echelons of administrators will earn a fair bit more than most academic staff, that's not the bulk of the general staff. We wouldn't be spending more on academics than on general staff if we had a senior manager for each line academic.

But, the time series may not be that different. The 2000 Annual Report had UC paying $52.7m in academic and technical staff salaries and $28.1m for general staff. I don't know whether technicians in the bench sciences count among academic or general staff for the 2011 salary breakdown; if their categorization changed, that explains some of the time path.

I like Cowen's summary of academia. It's worth keeping in mind whenever all-staff emails make you shake your head in wonder.
The United States circa 2012 is one of the most productive economies of all time, arguably the most productive if you take into account size and diversification (rules out Norway, etc.).  Internationally speaking, in the richest and most productive global economy of all time, which is our most competitive sector?
Hollywood?  Maybe, but it could well be higher education.  Students from all over the world want to go to U.S. higher education.  If we had nicer immigration authorities, this advantage would be all the more pronounced.
In other words, I work in what is perhaps the most competitive and successful sector in the most competitive and successful economy of all time.
And yet what I see around me is a total, total mess.  And I believe my school to be considerably above average in terms of how well it is run.
Dilbert is universal; the grass is rarely greener.

Wednesday, 28 March 2012

Science Status

One way of breaking out of the Great Stagnation: raise the social status of scientists such that more folks pick science over, say, law. Here's the Forbes piece on Cowen from last year:

Raising the social status of scientists

Cowen’s only concrete recommendation to improve the great stagnation is to “raise the social status of scientists”.  He says: “I don’t want a bunch of extra science prizes given out by the White House; what I want is that most people really care about science and view scientific achievement as a pinnacle of our best qualities as leaders of Western civilization.”
Such a raise in status is devoutly to be wished, particularly the rise in the status of scientists relative to overpaid executives in the financial sector. However such a rise in status is unlikely to have any immediate impact on innovation or growth.
Innovation depends not on how many scientific ideas are out there. It depends on how quickly the already abundant ideas are implemented in the marketplace.
New Zealand columnist Rosemary McLeod also points to the problem, although without any concrete solution:
By contrast to Deen, I doubt very much that any women pant after Stephen Wolfram, the balding and totally average-looking maths genius, now middle-aged, who wrote his first book on particle physics at the age of 14 and had a PhD at 20.

I mention this because somewhere in the great system of evolution there is a definite glitch that needs to be explained in a hurry if our species is to work out how to survive in this world we currently make such a mess of.

It is the likes of Wolfram we should be aiming our simpering selves at, surely, rather than an average Joe with a single, rather common ability that requires almost no IQ.

We should be wanting to breed - if sex still has any relation to reproduction - with blokes who are not only clever, but also rich.

We should thrill to words like "cosmology" and "quantum field theory", then, for the very good reason that we haven't a clue what they mean, but guess that they may come in handy one day.
A lot of should, but no way of getting there from here. Science, alas, isn't generally seen as all that alpha in the only metric that matters in the long run.

Rugby, on the other hand, does not lack for social approbation.
On Saturday, New Zealand learned that we had lost one of our greatest minds.  Sir Paul Callaghan, the 2011 New Zealander of the Year, held many accolades including being a Principal Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit.  His list of credentials are as long as they are impressive.  However, despite this, his death and ultimate loss to New Zealand was relegated to the fourth most important news item on both One News and 3 News, something I thought was worth lamenting.
Only 11 days earlier, another Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit member passed away.  His death lead both bulletins.  This of course was Jock Hobbs: former All Black and the man who has been bestowed the honor of saving New Zealand rugby and of securing the 2011 Rugby World Cup hosting rights.
On the day the Jock Hobbs died, both networks deemed the story as being more ‘important’ (i.e. higher up in the bulletin) than news of a major breach of privacy at ACC, the conflict in Syria, the Urewera 4 trial, Asia Air X ending its service to Christchurch, the Ports of Auckland strike and the Chris Cairns libel case.
Compare this to when Sir Paul Callaghan passed away, One News thought the return of a sporting event to Christchurch, the refit of a sports stadium and an incident involving a hot air balloon in which everyone was safe were more important. 3 News had the jailing of a Kiwi duped into smuggling cocaine in Argentina, the cost to rent a house in Auckland and President Obama’s statement about a killed teenager in Florida.
Re-read that list of stories again.  Is it not appalling?  Is it not disrespectful?  Could you go as far as asking if it’s fair, balanced or even reasonable?
It's lamentable, but perfectly understandable. Media plays to what the public wants in a competitive marketplace. And here they want rugby and mostly reckon scientists a bunch of tosser eggheads who should be forced to find real jobs. Not that it's particularly better anywhere else.

We'll know things have changed when scientists have groupies. I'm not betting on its ever happening. I remember stories about one socially obtuse grad student (a few years ahead of me in school, and who will remain nameless) who went around introducing himself to ladies saying "Hi! I just had this paper published! I wrote this!" He was, unsurprisingly, unsuccessful. But I'd expect an athlete of similarly poor social skills would have found more success by saying "Hi! Look at my MVP ring!"

Monday, 27 February 2012

Inducing an obligation

Tyler at Marginal Revolution points to a nice field experiment on charitable giving. People go out of their way to avoid folks soliciting charitable donations; they estimate the social pressure costs of turning down someone soliciting donations to be $1.40 for out-of-state charities and $3.80 for in-state.
Our calculations suggest that our door-to-door fund-raising campaigns on average lower the utility of the potential donors.
In other words, the warm fuzzy feelings among those giving donations are outweighed by the costs on those who'd rather not be bothered and who feel bad about saying no.
In the benchmark specification, a visit is estimated to lower welfare by $1.10 per household contacted for the in-state charity and by $0.44 for the out-of-state charity. The more negative welfare impact for the in-state charity is counterintuitive because more people are willing to donate to this better-liked charity. At the same time, however, the social pressure cost of saying no is also significantly higher for the local charity, and the second force dominates.
I'll admit that, after a bad day, I can get a fair number of utils from telling the Greenpeace door-knocker exactly why I won't give him any money. But their method is robust to those odd utility functions.

I'd note further that some charities seem to go out of their way to generate this "feel bad for saying no" disutility: the folks who send out free greeting cards painted by the disabled or free address labels are clearly setting up the recipient to feel an obligation to reciprocate. I just throw all that stuff out, but I'm a pod-person.

Katja Grace wonders if this phenomenon is tied to findings of inefficient charitable giving. As there's no chance that any of us barring Bill Gates can substantially push any charity down its marginal return curve, it makes no sense that we give little bits of money to lots of charities rather than just a big slog of money to the one we think does most good. So folks who'd get disutility from saying no can just cite efficient charity:
Maybe the campaign for efficient charity can have some effect on this section of givers. It provides a convincing excuse. I don’t feel so bad declining those who solicit donations when I can claim that as soon as they make the top of Giving What We Can or Givewell’s lists I will be morally permitted to consider them. Users of this excuse need not actually donate anything to better charities however.
Fortunately, door-to-door fundraisers are very rare in our neighbourhood - less than a visit per year. Even politicians rarely do door-to-door visits; instead, you'll see signs around that some politician will be at this particular street-corner at 7:30 to answer questions and talk with residents, and another sign down the road for 7:45 at the next corner. As this makes it easier for me to avoid campaigners, I'm very happy with the NZ norm.

Monday, 16 January 2012

Partial and General food equilibria

I'm omnivorous, mostly because I enjoy the taste of meat. I can rationalize it ethically by looking at Cowen's argument that it's ok, so long as the eaten animal had enjoyed positive lifetime utility and wouldn't have existed but for my willingness to subsidise its existence in exchange for later being able to eat it. But I know that that argument also rationalizes baby farming to produce slaves for me*. And there are other problems in bringing animals under a utilitarian framework. And so I try not to think about it too much. Because animals are tasty. And a vegetarian diet would be a big hassle. And I am indeed made happier by thinking about lambs playing in paddocks who wouldn't get to exist but for my eating them. So I follow Cowen's rule and aim for animals I can imagine enjoyed positive lifetime utility.

Vegetarians sometimes argue** that we have to abandon meat-eating because meat is an inefficient way of generating calories: if we all scaled up to Western diets, there wouldn't be enough land to grow food for everybody unless we switched over to vegetarian diets.

That argument is wrong on two fronts.

First, some land does most efficiently generate calories by producing grass to be eaten by animals. Like New Zealand high country sheep farming. There's not enough water in the country to irrigate that land to make it suitable for cropping. But it'll support low-density pastoral agriculture. Further, some grain crops wind up being of low value for human consumption but still suitable as supplement for animals. So the optimum is unlikely to involve everyone switching to vegetarianism if the objective is maximizing total available calories for human consumption (though if the developed world's bigger problem is obesity, I'm not entirely sure why we ought to take this as maximand anyway).

Second, it's entirely a partial equilibrium story. What happens as folks in the third world get richer and start moving from inferior goods like lentils and rice to superior goods like beef and lamb? The price of the latter get bid up. And what happens when relative prices change? People change their consumption bundles. And so I find the Washington Post reporting that Americans are eating less meat as meat prices increase.
Why is this happening? The Daily Livestock Report blames rising meat prices in the United States. As countries like China and India get richer, they’re eating more meat, which is helping to drive up U.S. exports and making beef, pork, and chicken more expensive here at home. Ethanol also plays a role: Nowadays, American farmers divert bushels and bushels of corn to make fuel, which drives up feed prices and, again, makes meat pricier.
There's no need for a moral imperative to reduce meat-eating. Get rid of subsidies in the agricultural sector, make sure effluent externalities are properly priced or regulated, then let relative price adjustments take care of the rest. The optimal amount of meat will be eaten, so long as we keep waving our hands about the moral questions.

* You can maybe square this by saying people get massive disutility from being slaves while animals don't know that they're slaves. But humanity has a long history of slavery, and most slaves, as best I'm aware, didn't commit suicide. So by revealed preference, lifetime utility was likely still positive. And then we're stuck again.

**This was somewhat sparked by an argument on Google Plus linked here (thanks Ryan!) which I cannot figure out how to link.

Tuesday, 29 November 2011

Blue law Bob Frank

Tyler Cowen posts an email from Robert Frank on Black Friday and shopping. One critical bit:
But the arms race that’s led to longer store hours poses a more serious problem for employees, many of whom had little choice but to truncate their holiday time with family and friends. I had a recent conversation about this issue with a friend in Ithaca who owns a wine store. Traditionally, New York State wine merchants were not allowed to do business on Sundays. But last year that restriction was repealed, and I asked my friend how the change had affected him. His overall sales were about the same, he told me. The change had thus been a clear negative from his perspective, since it meant that he and his wife were no longer able to spend Sundays together with their children. The upside was that customers who lacked the foresight to shop in advance for their Sunday wine needs could now be accommodated. If we’re willing to discount the cost of an inconvenience suffered by those who could easily have avoided it, the costs in this case seem clearly to outweigh the benefits.
Emphasis added.

The world of Sunday closing laws and limited shop hours didn't just impose minor inconvenience. They made two-earner families far more impracticable; Bruce Yandle found female labour force participation reduced support for blue laws. They also privileged small inefficient merchants over larger, lower cost retailers. And recall that a pretty big chunk of observed productivity gains from the 90s came from Wal-Mart.

I'm more than happy to count the disutility felt by shopkeepers and their employees when hours are longer. But putting a thumb on the scales by assuming away the inconvenience imposed on customers takes Frank outside of the economic framework for welfare analysis.