Tuesday 1 May 2012

Move over Duckworth Lewis

Dr. Scott Brooker's scoring method for rain-affected cricket games, and his graduation, made the weekend Press.
Self-confessed cricket nut Scott Brooker has created an adversary to the complex cricket-target formula used when rain disrupts play.
Brooker yesterday graduated from Canterbury University with his PhD on "An economic analysis of ability, strategy and fairness in one-day international cricket".
It marked the culmination of four years' work that began with "a phone call out of the blue" from the university's economics department asking him to investigate alternatives to the controversial Duckworth-Lewis method.

"What the Duckworth-Lewis method does is calculate what the target score should be based on the time that is left to play," Brooker said. "I show the Duckworth-Lewis method is better than the other systems used for international cricket before, but it is still not perfect and it can still be improved."

Brooker said his system used a different criterion of fairness to adjust the target score, based on the probability of winning before rain disrupted play.

"If you have a 60 per cent chance of winning when it rained, the readjusted target score should still be that you have a 60 per cent chance of winning the game," he said.
Scott wrote under Seamus Hogan. So I hope someday to be as confused by sports reporting on the Brooker-Hogan method as I am by the Duckworth-Lewis method.

1 comment:

  1. Well done Scott (and Seamus) - it is always good to hear of the successes of research! I eagerly await its implementation!